Sport Picks
Burnley U21 vs Derby U21 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
Premier League 2 Lancashire County Ground, Leyland 
Match Events
3'
3'
Johnson Z.
Assist: Okonkwo D.
29'
29'
Gordon I.
35'
35'
Oguntolu J.
Assist: Smith C.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League 2 game between Burnley U21 and Derby U21 finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Burnley U21.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Burnley U21 come out ahead of Derby U21 on wins alone.
- Model gives Burnley U21 a 40% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Burnley U21 Clean Sheet 11%
Derby U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Burnley U21 | Derby U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 9 | 8 |
| Draws | 5 | 8 |
| Losses | 15 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.48 | 1.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 2 | 2.32 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.44 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 18, 2026 Premier League 2
Burnley U21 vs Derby U21
4:1
Feb 23, 2026 Premier League 2
Burnley U21 vs Derby U21
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Burnley U21 Compare
Top Goalscorer Johnson Z.
2 Goals Assists Leader Pouani B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22
Derby U21 Compare
Top Goalscorer Oguntolu J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Burnley U21 47 / 100
Derby U21 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Burnley U21 Derby U21
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Burnley U21 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Derby U21's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.
Burnley U21 scored in 76% of their last 29 games.
Burnley U21 has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Burnley U21 VS Derby U21
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 3.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Burnley U21
(Home) 09 Oct
Burnley U21
2 : 2 Preston U21
18 Sept
Burnley U21
4 : 1 Derby U21
14 Sept
Nottingham U21
1 : 0 Burnley U21
08 Sept
Fleetwood Town U21
1 : 2 Burnley U21
28 Aug
Burnley U21
1 : 3 Reading U21
Page 1 of 6
09 Oct
Burnley U21
2 : 2 Preston U21
18 Sept
Burnley U21
4 : 1 Derby U21
28 Aug
Burnley U21
1 : 3 Reading U21
13 Apr
Burnley U21
2 : 1 West Brom U21
12 Apr
Burnley U21
0 : 2 Blackburn U21
Page 1 of 3
Derby U21
(Away) 18 Sept
Burnley U21
4 : 1 Derby U21
11 Sept
Derby U21
1 : 3 Tottenham U21
08 Sept
Gateshead
1 : 3 Derby U21
31 Aug
Derby U21
4 : 4 West Brom U21
24 Aug
Reading U21
1 : 3 Derby U21
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Burnley U21
4 : 1 Derby U21
08 Sept
Gateshead
1 : 3 Derby U21
24 Aug
Reading U21
1 : 3 Derby U21
18 Aug
Halifax
6 : 2 Derby U21
27 Apr
Brentford U21
2 : 0 Derby U21
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13:7 | 10 |
| 2 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | 10 |
| 3 | Sunderland U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15:11 | 10 |
| 4 | Manchester United U21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:3 | 9 |
| 5 | Chelsea U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13:8 | 9 |
| 6 | Bournemouth U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:6 | 9 |
| 7 | Nottingham U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7:7 | 9 |
| 8 | Liverpool U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:4 | 7 |
| 9 | Fulham U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12:9 | 7 |
| 10 | Leeds U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11:9 | 7 |
| 11 | Reading U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 12 | Norwich U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 13 | Brentford U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:8 | 6 |
| 14 | Everton U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 15 | West Ham U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:8 | 5 |
| 17 | Stoke City U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7:5 | 4 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 19 | Brighton U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7:9 | 4 |
| 20 | Derby U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9:12 | 4 |
| 21 | Arsenal U21 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6:9 | 4 |
| 22 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:6 | 3 |
| 23 | Burnley U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8:9 | 3 |
| 24 | Blackburn U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 25 | Ipswich U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:10 | 3 |
| 26 | Birmingham U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:7 | 2 |
| 27 | Middlesbrough U21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7:10 | 2 |
| 28 | West Brom U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8:11 | 1 |
| 29 | Leicester U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:7 | 1 |
| 30 | Newcastle Utd U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:9 | 0 |
| 31 | Wolves U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:10 | 0 |
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