Sport Picks
Burnley vs Aston Villa
England
Premier League 2025/2026 Turf Moor, Burnley 
Match Events
8'
8'
Anthony J.
39'
39'
Watkins O.
42'
42'
Barkley R.
Assist: McGinn J.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Burnley and Aston Villa finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
15%
35%
50%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Aston Villa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
50%
/ Medium Confidence
- Burnley haven't matched Aston Villa's recent run of results.
- Model gives Aston Villa a 50% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Burnley Clean Sheet 17%
Aston Villa Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Burnley | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 2 | 15 |
| Draws | 10 | 3 |
| Losses | 18 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.03 | 2 |
| Goals Conceded | 2 | 1.4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 10, 2026 Premier League
Burnley vs Aston Villa
2:2
Oct 5, 2025 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Burnley
2:1
Dec 30, 2023 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Burnley
3:2
Aug 27, 2023 Premier League
Burnley vs Aston Villa
1:3
May 19, 2022 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Burnley
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Burnley Compare
Top Goalscorer Anthony J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Flemming Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Aston Villa Compare
Top Goalscorer Barkley R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Watkins O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Burnley 15 / 100
Aston Villa 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Burnley Aston Villa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aston Villa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.
Attacking prowess: Burnley scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.
Aston Villa let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.
Burnley went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Burnley VS Aston Villa
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Burnley
(Home) 19 Sept
Burnley
1 : 1 Derby
12 Sept
Swansea
3 : 1 Burnley
08 Sept
Wrexham
1 : 1 Burnley
05 Sept
Burnley
1 : 2 Bristol City
02 Sept
Burnley
1 : 1 Middlesbrough
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Burnley
1 : 1 Derby
05 Sept
Burnley
1 : 2 Bristol City
02 Sept
Burnley
1 : 1 Middlesbrough
16 Aug
Burnley
2 : 2 West Ham
08 Aug
Burnley
2 : 1 Notts County
Page 1 of 3
Aston Villa
(Away) 19 Sept
Tottenham
2 : 3 Aston Villa
16 Sept
Coventry
1 : 3 Aston Villa
12 Sept
Aston Villa
1 : 2 Nottingham
08 Sept
Club Brugge
2 : 3 Aston Villa
05 Sept
Hull City
0 : 0 Aston Villa
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Tottenham
2 : 3 Aston Villa
16 Sept
Coventry
1 : 3 Aston Villa
08 Sept
Club Brugge
2 : 3 Aston Villa
05 Sept
Hull City
0 : 0 Aston Villa
23 Aug
Brighton
4 : 0 Aston Villa
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71:27 | 85 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77:35 | 78 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69:50 | 71 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56:49 | 65 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63:53 | 60 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58:54 | 57 |
| 7 | Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42:48 | 54 |
| 8 | Brighton | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52:46 | 53 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55:52 | 53 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58:52 | 52 |
| 11 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47:51 | 52 |
| 12 | Newcastle Utd | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53:55 | 49 |
| 13 | Everton | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47:50 | 49 |
| 14 | Leeds | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49:56 | 47 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41:51 | 45 |
| 16 | Nottingham | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48:51 | 44 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48:57 | 41 |
| 18 | West Ham | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46:65 | 39 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38:75 | 22 |
| 20 | Wolves | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27:68 | 20 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship (Main)
