Sport Picks

England

Premier League 2025/2026 Turf Moor

Burnley

2 - 2

Aston Villa

Our Tip

Match Events

Anthony J.

39'

Watkins O.

42'

Barkley R.

Assist: McGinn J.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Burnley and Aston Villa finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

Burnley

Draws

90%

Aston Villa

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Aston Villa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Burnley haven't matched Aston Villa's recent run of results.
Model gives Aston Villa a 90% chance of winning this.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 50%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%

Burnley Clean Sheet 10%

Aston Villa Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Burnley	Aston Villa
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	2	16
Draws	10	4
Losses	19	10
Goals Scored	0.88	2
Goals Conceded	2	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.00	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Premier League

Burnley vs Aston Villa

Possession: 55% - 51% Cards: 0 - 2

2:2

Oct 5, 2025 Premier League

Aston Villa vs Burnley

Possession: 60% - 49% Cards: 4 - 1

2:1

Dec 30, 2023 Premier League

Aston Villa vs Burnley

Possession: 54% - 53% Cards: 4 - 3

3:2

Aug 27, 2023 Premier League

Burnley vs Aston Villa

Possession: 56% - 46% Cards: 3 - 2

1:3

May 19, 2022 Premier League

Aston Villa vs Burnley

Possession: 57% - 52% Cards: 4 - 3

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Burnley Compare

Top Goalscorer Anthony J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Flemming Z.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Aston Villa Compare

Top Goalscorer Barkley R.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Watkins O.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burnley 10 / 100

Aston Villa 84 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Burnley Aston Villa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AST Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Burnley scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Aston Villa let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Burnley went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Burnley VS Aston Villa

0.88 Goals Scored 2

2 Goals Conceded 1.25

75% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 63%

50% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	26	7	5	71:27	85
2	Manchester City	38	23	9	6	77:35	78
3	Manchester United	38	20	11	7	69:50	71
4	Aston Villa	38	19	8	11	56:49	65
5	Liverpool	38	17	9	12	63:53	60
6	Bournemouth	38	13	18	7	58:54	57
7	Sunderland	38	14	12	12	42:48	54
8	Brighton	38	14	11	13	52:46	53
9	Brentford	38	14	11	13	55:52	53
10	Chelsea	38	14	10	14	58:52	52
11	Fulham	38	15	7	16	47:51	52
12	Newcastle Utd	38	14	7	17	53:55	49
13	Everton	38	13	10	15	47:50	49
14	Leeds	38	11	14	13	49:56	47
15	Crystal Palace	38	11	12	15	41:51	45
16	Nottingham	38	11	11	16	48:51	44
17	Tottenham	38	10	11	17	48:57	41
18	West Ham	38	10	9	19	46:65	39
19	Burnley	38	4	10	24	38:75	22
20	Wolves	38	3	11	24	27:68	20