Sport Picks
Burnley vs Aston Villa
England
Premier League 2025/2026 Turf Moor, Burnley 
Match Events
8'
8'
Anthony J.
39'
39'
Watkins O.
42'
42'
Barkley R.
Assist: McGinn J.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Burnley and Aston Villa finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
4%
6%
90%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Aston Villa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Burnley haven't matched Aston Villa's recent run of results.
- Model gives Aston Villa a 90% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Burnley Clean Sheet 10%
Aston Villa Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Burnley | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 2 | 14 |
| Draws | 10 | 4 |
| Losses | 16 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 2.63 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.13 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 2.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 2.13 | 1.00 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 10, 2026 Premier League
Burnley vs Aston Villa
2:2
Oct 5, 2025 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Burnley
2:1
Dec 30, 2023 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Burnley
3:2
Aug 27, 2023 Premier League
Burnley vs Aston Villa
1:3
May 19, 2022 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Burnley
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Burnley Compare
Top Goalscorer Anthony J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Flemming Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Aston Villa Compare
Top Goalscorer Barkley R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Watkins O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Burnley 10 / 100
Aston Villa 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Burnley Aston Villa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick AST Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.
Attacking prowess: Burnley scored in 68% of their last 28 outings.
Aston Villa let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.
Burnley went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Burnley VS Aston Villa
1 Goals Scored 2.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Burnley
(Home) 26 Jul
Ajax
2 : 1 Burnley
16 Jul
Real Salt Lake
4 : 1 Burnley
12 Jul
Columbus Crew
1 : 1 Burnley
10 Jul
FC Cincinnati
3 : 1 Burnley
24 May
Burnley
1 : 1 Wolves
Page 1 of 6
24 May
Burnley
1 : 1 Wolves
10 May
Burnley
2 : 2 Aston Villa
22 Apr
Burnley
0 : 1 Manchester City
11 Apr
Burnley
0 : 2 Brighton
14 Mar
Burnley
0 : 0 Bournemouth
Page 1 of 3
Aston Villa
(Away) 28 Jul
Aston Villa
2 : 4 Real Sociedad
25 Jul
FC Porto
2 : 1 Aston Villa
21 Jul
Walsall
0 : 5 Aston Villa
24 May
Manchester City
1 : 2 Aston Villa
20 May
Freiburg
0 : 3 Aston Villa
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
FC Porto
2 : 1 Aston Villa
21 Jul
Walsall
0 : 5 Aston Villa
24 May
Manchester City
1 : 2 Aston Villa
20 May
Freiburg
0 : 3 Aston Villa
10 May
Burnley
2 : 2 Aston Villa
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71:27 | 85 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77:35 | 78 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69:50 | 71 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56:49 | 65 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63:53 | 60 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58:54 | 57 |
| 7 | Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42:48 | 54 |
| 8 | Brighton | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52:46 | 53 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55:52 | 53 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58:52 | 52 |
| 11 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47:51 | 52 |
| 12 | Newcastle Utd | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53:55 | 49 |
| 13 | Everton | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47:50 | 49 |
| 14 | Leeds | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49:56 | 47 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41:51 | 45 |
| 16 | Nottingham | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48:51 | 44 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48:57 | 41 |
| 18 | West Ham | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46:65 | 39 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38:75 | 22 |
| 20 | Wolves | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27:68 | 20 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship (Main)
