Sport Picks
Match Events
4'
4'
Ramsey A.
Assist: Broja A.
35'
35'
Clark B.
Assist: Elder C.
46'
46'
Sub
Elder C. In: Clarke M.
Out: Elder C.
AI Match Summary
Burnley in this EFL Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
32%
20%
48%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Derby
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Derby lately — more wins on the board than Burnley.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Burnley taking it.
- Derby arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Burnley, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Burnley Clean Sheet 17%
Derby Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Burnley | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 2 | 11 |
| Draws | 9 | 2 |
| Losses | 18 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.03 | 1.28 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.03 | 1.48 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 26, 2025 EFL Cup
Burnley vs Derby
2:1
Apr 8, 2025 Championship
Derby vs Burnley
0:0
Dec 10, 2024 Championship
Burnley vs Derby
0:0
Jan 25, 2016 Championship
Burnley vs Derby
4:1
Sep 21, 2015 Championship
Derby vs Burnley
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Burnley Compare
Top Goalscorer Ramsey A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sonne O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Derby Compare
Top Goalscorer Clark B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Burnley 41 / 100
Derby 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Burnley Derby
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Burnley's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Derby let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.
Derby lost 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Burnley VS Derby
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Burnley
(Home) 12 Sept
Swansea
3 : 1 Burnley
08 Sept
Wrexham
1 : 1 Burnley
05 Sept
Burnley
1 : 2 Bristol City
02 Sept
Burnley
1 : 1 Middlesbrough
29 Aug
Norwich
4 : 1 Burnley
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Burnley
1 : 2 Bristol City
02 Sept
Burnley
1 : 1 Middlesbrough
16 Aug
Burnley
2 : 2 West Ham
08 Aug
Burnley
2 : 1 Notts County
02 Aug
Burnley
0 : 1 Torino
Page 1 of 3
Derby
(Away) 12 Sept
Derby
1 : 2 Birmingham
09 Sept
Derby
0 : 1 West Brom
05 Sept
West Ham
3 : 0 Derby
01 Sept
Portsmouth
0 : 2 Derby
29 Aug
Derby
0 : 3 Swansea
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
West Ham
3 : 0 Derby
01 Sept
Portsmouth
0 : 2 Derby
15 Aug
Charlton
2 : 1 Derby
04 Aug
Rotherham
1 : 1 Derby
01 Aug
Burton
1 : 0 Derby
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Barrow 0
Preston 1
Wrexham 4
Hull City 3
Portsmouth 1
Reading 2
Gillingham 1
AFC Wimbledon 2
Burnley -
TBD -
West Brom 1
Derby 2
Cardiff 2
Swindon 1
Cheltenham 2
Exeter 0
Wolves -
TBD -
TBD -
West Ham -
Everton -
TBD -
Chesterfield 0
Mansfield 2
Tranmere 1
Burton 2
Harrogate 1
Lincoln City 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 2
Sheffield Utd 1
Blackpool 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 3
Fleetwood Town 2
Salford 0
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 1
Colchester 0
TBD -
Brighton -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford 1
Norwich 2
Northampton 0
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newport 0
Millwall 1
Coventry 1
Luton 0
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Walsall 0
Blackburn 1
Bradford City 2
Tottenham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Accrington 2
Peterborough 1
Middlesbrough 0
Doncaster 4
Wigan 1
Notts County 0
Stockport County 3
Crewe 1
Bromley 2
Ipswich 1
Leyton Orient 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham -
TBD -
Bristol City 2
Milton Keynes Dons 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Charlton 3
Stevenage 1
Swansea 3
Crawley Town 1
Plymouth 3
QPR 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland -
TBD -
Huddersfield 3
Leicester 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Manchester City -
Bolton 3
Sheffield Wed 4
TBD -
Leeds -
Grimsby 3
Shrewsbury 1
TBD -
Manchester United -
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
Brentford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Preston 2
Wrexham 3
Reading 2
AFC Wimbledon 1
Burnley 2
Derby 1
Cardiff 3
Cheltenham 0
Wolves 3
West Ham 2
Everton 2
Mansfield 0
Burton 0
Lincoln City 1
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 2
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Norwich 0
Southampton 3
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Millwall 2
Coventry 1
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Stoke City 0
Bradford City 3
Tottenham -
TBD -
Accrington 0
Doncaster 2
Wigan 1
Stockport County 0
Bromley 1
Wycombe 2
Fulham 2
Bristol City 0
Cambridge Utd 3
Charlton 1
Swansea 2
Plymouth 1
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland 1
Huddersfield 2
TBD -
Manchester City -
Sheffield Wed 2
Leeds 1
Grimsby 3
Manchester United 2
Bournemouth 0
Brentford 2
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Wrexham 2
Reading 0
Burnley 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 2
Everton 0
Lincoln City 1
Chelsea 2
Port Vale 0
Arsenal 2
Barnsley 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool 2
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace 2
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 4
Bradford City 1
Tottenham 3
Doncaster 0
Wigan 0
Wycombe 2
Fulham 1
Cambridge Utd 0
Swansea 3
Nottingham 2
Huddersfield 0
Manchester City 2
Sheffield Wed 0
Grimsby 1
Brentford 2
Aston Villa 1
1/8-finals
Wrexham 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 3
Chelsea 4
Arsenal 2
Brighton 0
Liverpool 0
Crystal Palace 3
Newcastle Utd 2
Tottenham 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham 2
Swansea 1
Manchester City 3
Grimsby 0
Brentford 5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff 1
Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2
Crystal Palace 1
Newcastle Utd 2
Fulham 1
Manchester City 2
Brentford 0
Semi-finals
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 4
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 5
Final
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2
