Sport Picks
Match Events
4'
4'
Ramsey A.
Assist: Broja A.
35'
35'
Clark B.
Assist: Elder C.
46'
46'
Sub
Elder C. In: Clarke M.
Out: Elder C.
AI Match Summary
Burnley in this EFL Cup 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Burnley.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
40%
29%
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Derby lately — more wins on the board than Burnley.
- 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Cup games in EFL Cup 2025/2026 usually bring a different intensity than the league.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Burnley Clean Sheet 11%
Derby Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Burnley | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 2 | 13 |
| Draws | 10 | 4 |
| Losses | 17 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 0.75 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.13 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 2.13 | 1.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 26, 2025 EFL Cup
Burnley vs Derby
2:1
Apr 8, 2025 Championship
Derby vs Burnley
0:0
Dec 10, 2024 Championship
Burnley vs Derby
0:0
Jan 25, 2016 Championship
Burnley vs Derby
4:1
Sep 21, 2015 Championship
Derby vs Burnley
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Burnley Compare
Top Goalscorer Ramsey A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sonne O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Derby Compare
Top Goalscorer Clark B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Burnley 30 / 100
Derby 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Burnley Derby
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Burnley scored in 66% of their last 29 games.
Defensive concern: Derby conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 1.60 goals.
Burnley went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Burnley VS Derby
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Barrow0
Preston1
Wrexham4
Hull City3
Portsmouth1
Reading2
Gillingham1
AFC Wimbledon2
Burnley-
TBD-
West Brom1
Derby2
Cardiff2
Swindon1
Cheltenham2
Exeter0
Wolves-
TBD-
TBD-
West Ham-
Everton-
TBD-
Chesterfield0
Mansfield2
Tranmere1
Burton2
Harrogate1
Lincoln City3
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Chelsea-
Birmingham2
Sheffield Utd1
Blackpool0
Port Vale1
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Arsenal-
Barnsley3
Fleetwood Town2
Salford0
Rotherham1
Oxford Utd1
Colchester0
TBD-
Brighton-
Liverpool-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Watford1
Norwich2
Northampton0
Southampton1
Crystal Palace-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Newport0
Millwall1
Coventry1
Luton0
Newcastle Utd-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Stoke City1
Walsall0
Blackburn1
Bradford City2
Tottenham-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Accrington2
Peterborough1
Middlesbrough0
Doncaster4
Wigan1
Notts County0
Stockport County3
Crewe1
Bromley2
Ipswich1
Leyton Orient0
Wycombe1
Fulham-
TBD-
Bristol City2
Milton Keynes Dons0
Bristol Rovers0
Cambridge Utd2
Charlton3
Stevenage1
Swansea3
Crawley Town1
Plymouth3
QPR2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Nottingham-
Sunderland-
TBD-
Huddersfield3
Leicester2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Manchester City-
Bolton3
Sheffield Wed4
TBD-
Leeds-
Grimsby3
Shrewsbury1
TBD-
Manchester United-
Bournemouth-
TBD-
TBD-
Brentford-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Aston Villa-
1/32-finals
Preston2
Wrexham3
Reading2
AFC Wimbledon1
Burnley2
Derby1
Cardiff3
Cheltenham0
Wolves3
West Ham2
Everton2
Mansfield0
Burton0
Lincoln City1
TBD-
Chelsea-
Birmingham0
Port Vale1
TBD-
Arsenal-
Barnsley2
Rotherham1
Oxford Utd0
Brighton6
Liverpool-
TBD-
Norwich0
Southampton3
Crystal Palace-
TBD-
Millwall2
Coventry1
Newcastle Utd-
TBD-
Stoke City0
Bradford City3
Tottenham-
TBD-
Accrington0
Doncaster2
Wigan1
Stockport County0
Bromley1
Wycombe2
Fulham2
Bristol City0
Cambridge Utd3
Charlton1
Swansea2
Plymouth1
TBD-
Nottingham-
Sunderland1
Huddersfield2
TBD-
Manchester City-
Sheffield Wed2
Leeds1
Grimsby3
Manchester United2
Bournemouth0
Brentford2
TBD-
Aston Villa-
1/16-finals
Wrexham2
Reading0
Burnley1
Cardiff2
Wolves2
Everton0
Lincoln City1
Chelsea2
Port Vale0
Arsenal2
Barnsley0
Brighton6
Liverpool2
Southampton1
Crystal Palace2
Millwall1
Newcastle Utd4
Bradford City1
Tottenham3
Doncaster0
Wigan0
Wycombe2
Fulham1
Cambridge Utd0
Swansea3
Nottingham2
Huddersfield0
Manchester City2
Sheffield Wed0
Grimsby1
Brentford2
Aston Villa1
1/8-finals
Wrexham1
Cardiff2
Wolves3
Chelsea4
Arsenal2
Brighton0
Liverpool0
Crystal Palace3
Newcastle Utd2
Tottenham0
Wycombe1
Fulham2
Swansea1
Manchester City3
Grimsby0
Brentford5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff1
Chelsea3
Arsenal2
Crystal Palace1
Newcastle Utd2
Fulham1
Manchester City2
Brentford0
Semi-finals
Chelsea2
Arsenal4
Newcastle Utd1
Manchester City5
Final
Arsenal0
Manchester City2