Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Burreli vs Apolonia Fier Prediction & H2H Stats

Albania Albania

Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026 Liri Ballabani Stadium, Burrel
Our Tip

Match Events

67' Event
Xhabrahimi A.
(Penalty)
71' Event
Murra L.

AI Match Summary

The Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026 game between Burreli and Apolonia Fier finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Burreli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Burreli
35%
Draws
16%
Apolonia Fier
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Burreli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Burreli carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 49% — that's where the model lands on Burreli taking it.
  • Regular Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Burreli Clean Sheet 68%
Apolonia Fier Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Burreli Apolonia Fier
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 5
Draws 8 7
Losses 13 17
Goals Scored 1 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Kategoria e Parë
Apolonia Fier vs Burreli
4:4
Jan 17, 2026 Kategoria e Parë
Burreli vs Apolonia Fier
2:0
Oct 19, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Apolonia Fier vs Burreli
1:2
Feb 23, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Apolonia Fier vs Burreli
0:0
Jan 19, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Burreli vs Apolonia Fier
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Burreli Compare

Top Goalscorer Murra L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Apolonia Fier Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burreli 59 / 100
Apolonia Fier 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Burreli Apolonia Fier

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Burreli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Burreli found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Apolonia Fier has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Burreli remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Burreli VS Apolonia Fier
1.25 Goals Scored 1
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Burreli

(Home)
20 Sept
KF Oriku
0 : 1
Burreli
16 Sept
Burreli
1 : 3
Sopoti Librazhd
11 Sept
Flamurtari
1 : 1
Burreli
06 Sept
Burreli
2 : 2
Kastrioti
03 May
Apolonia Fier
4 : 4
Burreli
Page 1 of 6

Apolonia Fier

(Away)
03 May
Apolonia Fier
4 : 4
Burreli
25 Apr
Iliria Kruja
2 : 1
Apolonia Fier
19 Apr
Apolonia Fier
1 : 2
Besa Kavaje
11 Apr
Korabi Peshkopi
0 : 0
Apolonia Fier
04 Apr
Kukesi
2 : 0
Apolonia Fier
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Laci 33 24 7 2 60:23 79
2 Skenderbeu Korca 33 24 5 4 57:25 77
3 Pogradeci 33 20 8 5 63:31 68
4 Iliria Kruja 33 11 12 10 32:33 45
5 Besa Kavaje 33 10 9 14 41:43 39
6 Kastrioti 33 11 6 16 44:57 39
7 Burreli 33 9 10 14 27:45 37
8 Korabi Peshkopi 33 8 12 13 31:39 36
9 AF Luftetari 33 7 13 13 37:43 34
10 Kukesi 33 8 7 18 31:50 31
11 Apolonia Fier 33 6 10 17 31:44 28
12 Lushnja 33 5 11 17 26:47 26
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore (Main)
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026 (Relegation)