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Stadium Background

Bursa Yildirimspor vs Gemlikspor

Turkey Turkey

3. Lig Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Kucukdurmus M.
Assist: Koylu K.
9' Event
Bektas M.
(Penalty)
40' Event
Kucukdurmus M.
Assist: Koylu K.

AI Match Summary

The 3. Lig Group 1 2025/2026 game between Bursa Yildirimspor and Gemlikspor finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Bursa Yildirimspor
39%
Draws
30%
Gemlikspor
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Bursa Yildirimspor carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular 3. Lig Group 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Bursa Yildirimspor Clean Sheet 19%
Gemlikspor Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bursa Yildirimspor Gemlikspor
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 10
Draws 10 8
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.25 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 3. Lig Group 1
Bursa Yildirimspor vs Gemlikspor
2:2
Oct 25, 2025 3. Lig Group 1
Gemlikspor vs Bursa Yildirimspor
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bursa Yildirimspor Compare

Top Goalscorer Bektas M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Gemlikspor Compare

Top Goalscorer Kucukdurmus M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bursa Yildirimspor 32 / 100
Gemlikspor 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bursa Yildirimspor Gemlikspor

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GEM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bursa Yildirimspor found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Gemlikspor's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Bursa Yildirimspor stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bursa Yildirimspor VS Gemlikspor
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bursa Yildirimspor

(Home)
27 Apr
Corluspor
1 : 1
Bursa Yildirimspor
23 Apr
Bursa Yildirimspor
2 : 3
Corluspor
18 Apr
Inegol Kafkas
3 : 1
Bursa Yildirimspor
12 Apr
Bursa Yildirimspor
0 : 0
Galata Spor Kulubu
05 Apr
Beykoz Ishakli Spor
1 : 0
Bursa Yildirimspor
Page 1 of 6

Gemlikspor

(Away)
18 Apr
Gemlikspor
3 : 1
Kestel Cilekspor
12 Apr
Silivrispor
1 : 2
Gemlikspor
05 Apr
Gemlikspor
2 : 1
Bulvarspor
28 Mar
Kucukcekmece
3 : 0
Gemlikspor
24 Mar
Gemlikspor
3 : 2
Yesil Yalova FK
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Inegol Kafkas30188449:2662
2Corluspor30187557:2361
3Kucukcekmece30175854:3056
4Etimesgut301410636:2352
5Bursa Yildirimspor301310738:3149
6Silivrispor301271142:3643
7Beykoz Ishakli Spor30913834:3540
8Gemlikspor301081233:4238
9Yesil Yalova FK309101138:3637
10Galata Spor Kulubu301071334:3437
11Bulvarspor30981335:4735
12Inkilap Futbol Spor Kulubu30714923:3635
13Cankaya FK308101238:3734
14Kestel Cilekspor30861627:3930
151926 Polatli Belediye30771624:4428
16Edirnespor Genclik30362122:6515
Promotion - 3. Lig Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)