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Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Turkey Turkey

1. Lig Bursa Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Bursa
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bursaspor host Mardin 1969 in the 1. Lig. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Bursaspor have averaged 2.48 scored and 0.45 conceded recently, against Mardin 1969's 1.4 scored and 0.63 conceded. Past meetings favor Bursaspor slightly — 2-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 4, 2026, ending 2:0. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.06, favoring Bursaspor. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Bursaspor
30%
Draws
19%
Mardin 1969
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bursaspor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Bursaspor carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Bursaspor a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.6%
Bursaspor Clean Sheet 20%
Mardin 1969 Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bursaspor Mardin 1969
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 23 16
Draws 6 6
Losses 2 8
Goals Scored 2.48 1.4
Goals Conceded 0.45 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 2. Lig Red Group
Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969
2:0
Dec 6, 2025 2. Lig Red Group
Mardin 1969 vs Bursaspor
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bursaspor 58 / 100
Mardin 1969 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bursaspor Mardin 1969

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bursaspor Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bursaspor scored in 90% of their last 31 games.

Solid form: Bursaspor remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Mardin 1969 has conceded goals in 47% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Bursaspor VS Mardin 1969
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Bursaspor

(Home)
19 Sept
Batman Petrolspor
1 : 2
Bursaspor
13 Sept
Bursaspor
2 : 2
Erokspor
07 Sept
Manisa FK
1 : 2
Bursaspor
03 Sept
Bursaspor
4 : 0
Istanbulspor AS
29 Aug
Kayserispor
1 : 2
Bursaspor
Page 1 of 7

Mardin 1969

(Away)
20 Sept
Mardin 1969
0 : 1
Kayserispor
13 Sept
Igdir FK
1 : 0
Mardin 1969
07 Sept
Mardin 1969
1 : 0
Bodrumspor
02 Sept
Sivasspor
2 : 2
Mardin 1969
29 Aug
Mardin 1969
1 : 1
Vanspor FK
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kayserispor 8 6 1 1 15:3 19
2 Bursaspor 8 6 1 1 16:7 19
3 Igdir FK 8 5 1 2 12:7 16
4 Batman Petrolspor 8 5 1 2 15:13 16
5 Sariyer 8 4 2 2 11:9 14
6 Keciorengucu 8 3 4 1 17:10 13
7 Mardin 1969 8 3 3 2 9:5 12
8 Antalyaspor 8 4 0 4 14:13 12
9 F. Karagumruk 8 3 3 2 12:11 12
10 Muglaspor 8 2 5 1 8:7 11
11 Bandirmaspor 8 2 4 2 12:5 10
12 Pendikspor 8 2 4 2 10:13 10
13 Manisa FK 8 2 3 3 12:12 9
14 Bodrumspor 8 1 5 2 7:6 8
15 Sivasspor 8 1 5 2 9:11 8
16 Umraniyespor 8 1 3 4 6:9 6
17 Erokspor 8 0 5 3 4:10 5
18 Istanbulspor AS 8 1 2 5 7:19 5
19 Vanspor FK 8 1 3 4 8:17 4
20 Boluspor 8 0 1 7 3:20 1
Promotion - Super Lig 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - 1. Lig (Play Offs)
Promotion - 1. Lig (Play Offs)