Sport Picks
Burton vs AFC Wimbledon
England
League One Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent 
Match Events
18'
18'
Stockley J.
Assist: Tilley J.
28'
28'
Evans G.
34'
34'
Smith A.
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
The League One game between Burton and AFC Wimbledon finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Burton.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AFC Wimbledon
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
23%
/ Low Confidence
- AFC Wimbledon carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Burton's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular League One form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Burton Clean Sheet 68%
AFC Wimbledon Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Burton | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 7 | 9 |
| Draws | 12 | 5 |
| Losses | 9 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.11 | 0.9 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.21 | 1.52 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 2, 2026 League One
Burton vs AFC Wimbledon
4:1
Apr 11, 2026 League One
Burton vs AFC Wimbledon
1:0
Oct 25, 2025 League One
AFC Wimbledon vs Burton
0:1
Jan 22, 2022 League One
Burton vs AFC Wimbledon
1:1
Oct 2, 2021 League One
AFC Wimbledon vs Burton
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Burton Compare
Top Goalscorer Evans G.
1 Goals Assists Leader Webster C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
AFC Wimbledon Compare
Top Goalscorer Stockley J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Burton 95 / 100
AFC Wimbledon 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Burton AFC Wimbledon
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Burton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Burton's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Defensive concern: AFC Wimbledon conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.
Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.
Burton went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Burton VS AFC Wimbledon
1.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Burton
(Home) 19 Sept
Burton
2 : 2 Mansfield
12 Sept
Oxford Utd
3 : 0 Burton
05 Sept
Burton
2 : 2 Cambridge Utd
02 Sept
Burton
4 : 1 AFC Wimbledon
29 Aug
Notts County
2 : 1 Burton
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Burton
2 : 2 Mansfield
05 Sept
Burton
2 : 2 Cambridge Utd
02 Sept
Burton
4 : 1 AFC Wimbledon
15 Aug
Burton
1 : 1 Stevenage
08 Aug
Burton
1 : 2 Blackburn
Page 1 of 3
AFC Wimbledon
(Away) 17 Sept
AFC Wimbledon
0 : 0 Milton Keynes Dons
12 Sept
AFC Wimbledon
1 : 0 Doncaster
07 Sept
Bromley
0 : 2 AFC Wimbledon
02 Sept
Burton
4 : 1 AFC Wimbledon
30 Aug
AFC Wimbledon
1 : 0 Wigan
Page 1 of 6
07 Sept
Bromley
0 : 2 AFC Wimbledon
02 Sept
Burton
4 : 1 AFC Wimbledon
27 Aug
Fulham
3 : 0 AFC Wimbledon
18 Aug
Leyton Orient
2 : 1 AFC Wimbledon
15 Aug
Huddersfield
3 : 0 AFC Wimbledon
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradford City | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7:4 | 15 |
| 2 | Sheffield Wed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:6 | 14 |
| 3 | Plymouth | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:10 | 13 |
| 4 | Huddersfield | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11:6 | 12 |
| 5 | Cambridge Utd | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12:10 | 12 |
| 6 | Oxford Utd | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 11 |
| 7 | AFC Wimbledon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | 11 |
| 8 | Reading | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14:7 | 10 |
| 9 | Stockport County | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16:10 | 10 |
| 10 | Leyton Orient | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13:9 | 10 |
| 11 | Stevenage | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:8 | 9 |
| 12 | Burton | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 13 | Leicester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 14 | Wycombe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:14 | 9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13:13 | 8 |
| 16 | Luton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12:14 | 8 |
| 17 | Mansfield | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:13 | 8 |
| 18 | Barnsley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7:12 | 8 |
| 19 | Bromley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:18 | 8 |
| 20 | Notts County | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 21 | Doncaster | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 22 | Milton Keynes Dons | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 8:10 | 6 |
| 23 | Peterborough | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4:12 | 5 |
| 24 | Wigan | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:12 | 4 |
Promotion - Championship 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two 2027/2028 (Main)
