Sport Picks

England

EFL Trophy 2025/2026 Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent

Burton

1 - 3

Crewe

Our Tip

Match Events

10'

Bogle O.

19'

Bogle O.

23'

Sub

Bogle O. In: Hodkin J.

Out: Bogle O.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Crewe in this EFL Trophy 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%

Burton

30%

Draws

47%

Crewe

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Crewe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence

Crewe have won more games recently than Burton.
Win probability leans Crewe's way, sitting at 60%.
Crewe arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Crewe, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 13%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%

Burton Clean Sheet 20%

Crewe Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Burton	Crewe
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	7	13
Draws	11	7
Losses	11	9
Goals Scored	1.03	1.38
Goals Conceded	1.17	1.14
Expected Goals (xG)	0.81	1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 11, 2025 EFL Trophy

Burton vs Crewe

1:3

Jul 15, 2023 Club Friendly

Crewe vs Burton

2:2

Jan 1, 2022 League One

Burton vs Crewe

4:1

Sep 18, 2021 League One

Crewe vs Burton

2:0

Mar 13, 2021 League One

Crewe vs Burton

0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Burton Compare

Top Goalscorer Scutt Z.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.62

Avg xA / game 0.41

Crewe Compare

Top Goalscorer Bogle O.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Hodkin J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burton 20 / 100

Crewe 58 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Burton Crewe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CRE Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Burton scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Crewe has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Burton has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Burton VS Crewe

0.75 Goals Scored 1

1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88

63% Over 1.5 63%

25% Over 2.5 38%

13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Burton

(Home)

08 Aug

Burton

1 : 2

Blackburn

01 Aug

Burton

1 : 0

Derby

28 Jul

Solihull Moors

1 : 1

Burton

22 Jul

Burton

0 : 1

Birmingham

18 Jul

Burton

0 : 3

Leicester

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Crewe

(Away)

08 Aug

Crewe

2 : 1

Accrington

01 Aug

Chester

0 : 0

Crewe

25 Jul

Crewe

1 : 2

Birmingham

21 Jul

Telford

0 : 3

Crewe

18 Jul

Crewe

1 : 1

Stoke City

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