Sport Picks

Burton vs Notts County - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England

EFL Trophy Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent

Notts County

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 1-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Recent numbers: Burton at 1.07 goals for, 1.21 against; Notts County at 1.55 for, 1.28 against. Head-to-head, Burton have won 0 to Notts County's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 29, 2026, ending 2:1. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 1.19) point toward Notts County. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%

Burton

30%

Draws

29%

Notts County

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Burton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence

Notts County carry the better recent record into this one.
42% — that's where the model lands on Burton taking it.
Notts County arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Notts County, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
History favors Notts County here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%

Burton Clean Sheet 20%

Notts County Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Burton	Notts County
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	8	11
Draws	11	7
Losses	10	11
Goals Scored	1.07	1.55
Goals Conceded	1.21	1.28
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 League One

Notts County vs Burton

2:1

Sep 24, 2024 EFL Trophy

Burton vs Notts County

1:2

Sep 3, 2013 EFL Trophy

Notts County vs Burton

1:0

Dec 28, 2009 League Two

Burton vs Notts County

1:4

Sep 5, 2009 League Two

Notts County vs Burton

1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burton 42 / 100

Notts County 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Burton Notts County

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Burton scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Notts County has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Burton has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Burton VS Notts County

1.63 Goals Scored 0.75

1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88

88% Over 1.5 63%

88% Over 2.5 25%

38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Burton

(Home)

06 Oct

Grimsby

0 : 1

Burton

03 Oct

Burton

1 : 3

Huddersfield

26 Sept

Plymouth

0 : 1

Burton

22 Sept

Burton

1 : 2

Nottingham U21

19 Sept

Burton

2 : 2

Mansfield

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Notts County

(Away)

22 Sept

Notts County

2 : 1

Grimsby

19 Sept

Reading

2 : 0

Notts County

12 Sept

Notts County

0 : 1

Bradford City

05 Sept

Huddersfield

1 : 1

Notts County

01 Sept

Doncaster

1 : 1

Notts County

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