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Burundi vs Algeria

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Stade Intwari, Bujumbura
Burundi Logo

Burundi

2 - 2
FT
Algeria Logo

Algeria

Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Chaibi F.
Own Goal
12' Event
Girumugisha J.
18'
Msanga H.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-2. This leg finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Burundi
30%
Draws
37%
Algeria
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Algeria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Algeria lately — more wins on the board than Burundi.
  • 33% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Algeria arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Algeria, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 52.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.8%
Burundi Clean Sheet 12%
Algeria Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Burundi Algeria
Matches Played 29 43
Wins 8 28
Draws 5 10
Losses 16 5
Goals Scored 1.03 2.21
Goals Conceded 1.24 0.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.02 1.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 29, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Burundi vs Algeria
2:2
Jan 9, 2024 Friendly International
Burundi vs Algeria
0:4
Aug 29, 2021 Friendly International
Algeria vs Burundi
3:0
Jun 16, 2021 Friendly International
Algeria vs Burundi
0:0
Jun 11, 2019 Friendly International
Algeria vs Burundi
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Burundi Compare

Top Goalscorer Girumugisha J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.51

Algeria Compare

Top Goalscorer Belloumi M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Boulbina A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.57
Avg xA / game 0.96

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burundi 29 / 100
Algeria 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Burundi Algeria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Burundi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Burundi has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Burundi's goal record stands at 38% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Algeria has conceded goals in 49% of their last 43 outings.

Scoring Trends

Burundi VS Algeria
1.67 Goals Scored 2.13
1.33 Goals Conceded 0.38
67% Over 1.5 50%
67% Over 2.5 38%
67% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Burundi

(Home)
29 Sept
Burundi
2 : 2
Algeria
25 Sept
Togo
1 : 0
Burundi
26 May
Morocco
5 : 0
Burundi
31 Mar
Burundi
4 : 0
Chad
27 Mar
Chad
0 : 4
Burundi
Page 1 of 6

Algeria

(Away)
29 Sept
Burundi
2 : 2
Algeria
25 Sept
Algeria
3 : 1
Zambia
03 Jul
Switzerland
2 : 0
Algeria
28 Jun
Algeria
3 : 3
Austria
23 Jun
Jordan
1 : 2
Algeria
Page 1 of 9

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Gabon 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Niger 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
4 Lesotho 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Egypt 2 1 1 0 5:0 4
2 Malawi 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
3 Angola 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
4 South Sudan 2 0 0 2 1:7 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivory Coast 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Gambia 2 2 0 0 6:3 6
3 Somalia 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
4 Ghana 2 0 0 2 2:6 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 2 2 0 0 7:1 6
2 Guinea 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Eritrea 2 0 1 1 1:6 1
4 Kenya 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
2 Zimbabwe 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
3 Equatorial Guinea 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
4 Sierra Leone 2 0 0 2 2:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Benin 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
2 Burkina Faso 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
3 Mauritania 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
4 Central Africa 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 2 1 1 0 4:2 4
2 Comoros 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
3 Namibia 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
4 Congo 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uganda 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Botswana 2 0 2 0 4:4 2
3 Tunisia 2 0 2 0 3:3 2
4 Libya 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 2 1 1 0 5:3 4
2 Zambia 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
3 Togo 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
4 Burundi 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Senegal 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Mozambique 2 1 1 0 5:2 4
3 Sudan 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
4 Ethiopia 2 0 0 2 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rwanda 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
2 Mali 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
3 Cape Verde 2 0 0 2 2:5 0
4 Liberia 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guinea Bissau 2 2 0 0 5:0 6
2 Nigeria 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
3 Tanzania 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
4 Madagascar 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)