Sport Picks
Match Events
35'
35'
Ogwang I.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 0-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Burundi
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Uganda have won more games recently than Burundi.
- Model gives Burundi a 51% chance of winning this.
- Uganda arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Uganda, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Uganda here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22.8%
Burundi Clean Sheet 68%
Uganda Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Burundi | Uganda |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 24 |
| Wins | 8 | 12 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 15 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.07 | 1.25 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Dec 29, 2024 African Nations Championship
Uganda vs Burundi
1:0
Dec 26, 2024 African Nations Championship
Burundi vs Uganda
0:1
Dec 7, 2019 CECAFA Championship
Uganda vs Burundi
2:1
Oct 19, 2019 African Nations Championship
Uganda vs Burundi
3:0
Sep 21, 2019 African Nations Championship
Burundi vs Uganda
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Burundi Compare
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Uganda Compare
Top Goalscorer Ogwang I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Burundi 77 / 100
Uganda 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Burundi Uganda
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Burundi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.
Difficult form: Uganda registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Burundi found the back of the net in 41% of recent matches (27 games).
Uganda has conceded goals in 58% of their last 24 outings.
Scoring Trends
Burundi VS Uganda
1.14 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
57% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 63%
43% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Burundi
(Home) 26 May
Morocco
5 : 0 Burundi
31 Mar
Burundi
4 : 0 Chad
27 Mar
Chad
0 : 4 Burundi
14 Oct
Gabon
2 : 0 Burundi
09 Oct
Burundi
0 : 1 Kenya
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31 Mar
Burundi
4 : 0 Chad
09 Oct
Burundi
0 : 1 Kenya
10 Jun
Burundi
0 : 0 Mauritania
25 Mar
Burundi
5 : 0 Seychelles
21 Mar
Burundi
0 : 1 Ivory Coast
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Uganda
(Away) 30 Dec
Uganda
1 : 3 Nigeria
27 Dec
Uganda
1 : 1 Tanzania
23 Dec
Tunisia
3 : 1 Uganda
18 Nov
Morocco
4 : 0 Uganda
14 Nov
Uganda
2 : 1 Chad
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23 Dec
Tunisia
3 : 1 Uganda
18 Nov
Morocco
4 : 0 Uganda
14 Oct
Algeria
2 : 1 Uganda
09 Oct
Botswana
0 : 1 Uganda
18 Aug
South Africa
3 : 3 Uganda
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
Semi-finals
Sierra Leone 2
Liberia 3
TBD -
Senegal -
Mauritania -
TBD -
TBD -
Mali -
Guinea -
TBD -
TBD -
Guinea Bissau -
Togo 3
Benin 1
TBD -
Niger -
Ivory Coast -
TBD -
TBD -
Burkina Faso -
Ghana -
TBD -
TBD -
Nigeria -
Equatorial Guinea -
TBD -
TBD -
Congo -
Central Africa -
TBD -
TBD -
Cameroon -
Chad -
TBD -
TBD -
D.R. Congo -
Burundi 6
Somalia 0
TBD -
Uganda -
Ethiopia 6
Eritrea 0
Sudan 2
Tanzania 1
South Sudan 3
Kenya 1
Djibouti 1
Rwanda 3
Zimbabwe 0
Eswatini 4
TBD -
Madagascar -
Lesotho 2
Namibia 1
TBD -
Angola -
Mozambique -
TBD -
TBD -
Zambia -
Final
Liberia 1
Senegal 4
Mauritania 1
Mali 0
Guinea 6
Guinea Bissau 2
Togo 1
Niger 1
Ivory Coast 2
Burkina Faso 3
Ghana 1
Nigeria 3
Equatorial Guinea 1
Congo 2
Central Africa 2
Cameroon 2
Chad 2
D.R. Congo 4
Burundi 0
Uganda 2
Ethiopia 1
Sudan 4
South Sudan 4
Rwanda 4
Eswatini 1
Madagascar 2
Lesotho 1
Angola 2
Mozambique 0
Zambia 6
