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Bury FC vs AFC Emley - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

NPL Premier Division Gigg Lane, Bury
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Robinson O.
30' Event
Carr T.
36' Event
Evans K.

AI Match Summary

Bury FC in this NPL Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bury FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Bury FC
15%
Draws
0%
AFC Emley
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bury FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Bury FC have won more games recently than AFC Emley.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Bury FC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Bury FC Clean Sheet 20%
AFC Emley Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bury FC AFC Emley
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 19 5
Draws 1 7
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 2.43 0.81
Goals Conceded 1.25 2
Expected Goals (xG) 3.19 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Bury FC vs AFC Emley
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bury FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Evans K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Robinson O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.45
Avg xA / game 1.59

AFC Emley Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bury FC 85 / 100
AFC Emley 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bury FC AFC Emley

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bury FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AFC Emley's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 27 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

AFC Emley's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Bury FC scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Bury FC VS AFC Emley
3.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 3
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Bury FC

(Home)
10 Oct
Alfreton
2 : 3
Bury FC
06 Oct
Stockton
1 : 0
Bury FC
03 Oct
Bury FC
2 : 1
Bromsgrove
26 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 3
Gainsborough
19 Sept
Bury FC
5 : 1
Workington
Page 1 of 6

AFC Emley

(Away)
10 Oct
AFC Emley
1 : 2
Gainsborough
03 Oct
Warrington Rylands
4 : 1
AFC Emley
29 Sept
AFC Emley
1 : 3
Workington
26 Sept
Bootle
5 : 0
AFC Emley
19 Sept
AFC Emley
0 : 4
Spennymoor
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 12 8 3 1 27:7 27
2 Avro 10 8 1 1 33:19 25
3 Redcar Athletic 12 7 4 1 23:11 25
4 Guiseley 11 7 1 3 24:11 22
5 Workington 12 6 3 3 23:19 21
6 Warrington Rylands 12 6 2 4 20:17 20
7 Curzon Ashton 10 6 1 3 21:11 19
8 Alfreton 12 6 0 6 18:13 18
9 Warrington Town 10 5 3 2 20:16 18
10 Bury FC 10 5 1 4 19:9 16
11 Gainsborough 10 5 1 4 20:14 16
12 Lancaster 12 5 1 6 16:24 16
13 Hyde 12 4 2 6 13:21 14
14 Ashton United 10 3 3 4 12:11 12
15 Whitby 11 4 0 7 17:32 12
16 Stockton 12 3 2 7 15:22 11
17 Leek Town 11 2 4 5 22:23 10
18 Quorn 11 2 4 5 18:27 10
19 AFC Emley 11 2 4 5 10:22 10
20 Bamber Bridge 11 2 3 6 16:31 9
21 Ilkeston 12 2 1 9 7:26 7
22 United of Manchester 10 1 2 7 12:20 5
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