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Bury FC vs Ilkeston - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

NPL Premier Division Gigg Lane, Bury
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Robinson O.
22' Event
Evans K.
(Penalty)
25' Event
Graham L.

AI Match Summary

Bury FC in this NPL Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 7-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bury FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Bury FC
15%
Draws
0%
Ilkeston
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bury FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bury FC lately — more wins on the board than Ilkeston.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Bury FC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Bury FC Clean Sheet 20%
Ilkeston Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bury FC Ilkeston
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 19 8
Draws 1 4
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 2.36 0.96
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 3.31 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Bury FC vs Ilkeston
7:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bury FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Graham L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Robinson O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.55
Avg xA / game 1.66

Ilkeston Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bury FC 85 / 100
Ilkeston 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bury FC Ilkeston

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bury FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ilkeston let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 7.00 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Ilkeston has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Bury FC found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

Scoring Trends

Bury FC VS Ilkeston
3.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 2.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Bury FC

(Home)
06 Oct
Stockton
1 : 0
Bury FC
03 Oct
Bury FC
2 : 1
Bromsgrove
26 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 3
Gainsborough
19 Sept
Bury FC
5 : 1
Workington
12 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 0
AFC Emley
Page 1 of 6

Ilkeston

(Away)
06 Oct
Ilkeston
0 : 2
Guiseley
03 Oct
Lancaster
2 : 1
Ilkeston
29 Sept
Ilkeston
0 : 1
Warrington Rylands
26 Sept
Ilkeston
1 : 3
Anstey Nomads
12 Sept
Workington
3 : 1
Ilkeston
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 12 8 3 1 27:7 27
2 Avro 10 8 1 1 33:19 25
3 Redcar Athletic 12 7 4 1 23:11 25
4 Guiseley 11 7 1 3 24:11 22
5 Workington 12 6 3 3 23:19 21
6 Warrington Rylands 12 6 2 4 20:17 20
7 Curzon Ashton 10 6 1 3 21:11 19
8 Alfreton 12 6 0 6 18:13 18
9 Warrington Town 10 5 3 2 20:16 18
10 Bury FC 10 5 1 4 19:9 16
11 Gainsborough 10 5 1 4 20:14 16
12 Lancaster 12 5 1 6 16:24 16
13 Hyde 12 4 2 6 13:21 14
14 Ashton United 10 3 3 4 12:11 12
15 Whitby 11 4 0 7 17:32 12
16 Stockton 12 3 2 7 15:22 11
17 Leek Town 11 2 4 5 22:23 10
18 Quorn 11 2 4 5 18:27 10
19 AFC Emley 11 2 4 5 10:22 10
20 Bamber Bridge 11 2 3 6 16:31 9
21 Ilkeston 12 2 1 9 7:26 7
22 United of Manchester 10 1 2 7 12:20 5
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