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Stadium Background

Buxoro vs Pakhtakor

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League Buxoro FA Stadioni, Bukhara
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Resan B.
20'
Kuvvatov S.
46'
Sub
Joraboev A. In: Begic D.
Out: Joraboev A.

AI Match Summary

The Super League game between Buxoro and Pakhtakor finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pakhtakor.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Buxoro
30%
Draws
43%
Pakhtakor
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pakhtakor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Pakhtakor come out ahead of Buxoro on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Pakhtakor's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Pakhtakor have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Buxoro Clean Sheet 17%
Pakhtakor Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Buxoro Pakhtakor
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 10 18
Draws 7 8
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 1.04 1.68
Goals Conceded 1.21 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 6, 2026 Super League
Pakhtakor vs Buxoro
2:2
Apr 22, 2026 Super League
Buxoro vs Pakhtakor
0:1
Oct 29, 2025 Uzbekistan Cup
Pakhtakor vs Buxoro
1:0
Oct 4, 2025 Super League
Buxoro vs Pakhtakor
0:4
May 10, 2025 Super League
Pakhtakor vs Buxoro
6:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Buxoro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Pakhtakor Compare

Top Goalscorer Resan B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Buxoro 28 / 100
Pakhtakor 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Buxoro Pakhtakor

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Attacking prowess: Buxoro scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Pakhtakor let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.

Buxoro has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Buxoro VS Pakhtakor
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Buxoro

(Home)
06 Aug
Pakhtakor
2 : 2
Buxoro
01 Aug
Buxoro
2 : 1
Lok. Tashkent
27 Jul
Andijan
2 : 0
Buxoro
21 Jul
Buxoro
1 : 0
Bunyodkor
16 Jul
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1
Buxoro
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Pakhtakor

(Away)
11 Aug
Pakhtakor
3 : 0
Al Hussein
06 Aug
Pakhtakor
2 : 2
Buxoro
01 Aug
Andijan
0 : 0
Pakhtakor
26 Jul
Bunyodkor
0 : 1
Pakhtakor
21 Jul
Pakhtakor
2 : 1
Xorazm Urganch
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftchi Fargona 16 12 3 1 38:6 39
2 Pakhtakor 16 10 5 1 28:16 35
3 Navbahor Namangan 16 8 4 4 24:14 28
4 OKMK 16 8 4 4 27:22 28
5 Buxoro 16 8 3 5 21:18 27
6 Nasaf Qarshi 16 6 7 3 19:14 25
7 Lok. Tashkent 16 7 4 5 24:22 25
8 Andijan 16 6 3 7 22:17 21
9 Din. Samarkand 16 6 3 7 25:27 21
10 Bunyodkor 16 6 1 9 16:22 19
11 Xorazm Urganch 16 5 4 7 14:22 19
12 Sogdiana 16 5 3 8 27:34 18
13 Termez Surkhon 16 5 3 8 15:23 18
14 Qizilqum 16 5 2 9 13:24 17
15 Kokand 1912 16 2 6 8 13:24 12
16 Mashal Muborak 16 1 1 14 8:29 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Pro Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Pro Liga 2027 (Main)