Sport Picks
Match Events
27'
27'
Tuntulwana S.
37'
37'
Waters B.
41'
41'
Moses D.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Buxton in this National League North matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Buxton.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
48%
15%
37%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Buxton
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
48%
/ Medium Confidence
- Chester haven't matched Buxton's recent run of results.
- 48% — that's where the model lands on Buxton taking it.
- Regular National League North form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Chester here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Buxton Clean Sheet 19%
Chester Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Buxton | Chester |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 19 | 17 |
| Draws | 2 | 5 |
| Losses | 7 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.96 | 1.31 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.21 | 0.76 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 National League North
Buxton vs Chester
3:1
Feb 14, 2026 National League North
Chester vs Buxton
1:0
Nov 8, 2025 National League North
Buxton vs Chester
1:2
Apr 30, 2025 National League North
Chester vs Buxton
2:1
Jan 11, 2025 National League North
Buxton vs Chester
2:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Buxton Compare
Top Goalscorer Tuntulwana S.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Chester Compare
Top Goalscorer Waters B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Buxton 85 / 100
Chester 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Buxton Chester
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Buxton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Buxton's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.
Buxton went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Defensive concern: Chester conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Buxton VS Chester
2 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 50%
88% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Buxton
(Home) 26 Sept
South Shields
4 : 0 Buxton
19 Sept
Buxton
1 : 0 Ashton United
12 Sept
Buxton
3 : 1 Chester
08 Sept
Buxton
5 : 0 Brackley
05 Sept
Morecambe
4 : 0 Buxton
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Buxton
1 : 0 Ashton United
12 Sept
Buxton
3 : 1 Chester
08 Sept
Buxton
5 : 0 Brackley
31 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
22 Aug
Buxton
1 : 2 Hebburn Town
Page 1 of 3
Chester
(Away) 26 Sept
Chester
4 : 1 Worksop
19 Sept
Lower Breck
1 : 2 Chester
12 Sept
Buxton
3 : 1 Chester
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
05 Sept
Hebburn Town
1 : 1 Chester
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Lower Breck
1 : 2 Chester
12 Sept
Buxton
3 : 1 Chester
05 Sept
Hebburn Town
1 : 1 Chester
29 Aug
Hereford
1 : 1 Chester
18 Aug
Darlington FC
0 : 1 Chester
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22:5 | 23 |
| 2 | Macclesfield | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | 21 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18:7 | 20 |
| 4 | South Shields | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:13 | 20 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16:16 | 18 |
| 6 | Spalding United | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14:8 | 17 |
| 7 | Chester | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13:9 | 17 |
| 8 | King’s Lynn | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20:15 | 16 |
| 9 | Buxton | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18:18 | 16 |
| 10 | Bedford | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14:14 | 16 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:9 | 14 |
| 12 | Chorley | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16:17 | 14 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12:11 | 13 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:12 | 12 |
| 15 | Hednesford | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17:17 | 12 |
| 16 | Marine | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12:12 | 12 |
| 17 | Harborough | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10:12 | 12 |
| 18 | Worksop | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10:16 | 12 |
| 19 | Brackley | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11:19 | 12 |
| 20 | Southport | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13:20 | 9 |
| 21 | Telford | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8:15 | 9 |
| 22 | Darlington FC | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12:21 | 7 |
| 23 | Spennymoor | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11:21 | 7 |
| 24 | Radcliffe | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9:20 | 6 |
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Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
