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Stadium Background

Buxton vs Hereford

England England

National League North The Silverlands, Buxton
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Tuntulwana S.
90' Event
Skinner A.
(Penalty)
90' Event
Tuntulwana S.

AI Match Summary

The National League North game between Buxton and Hereford finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Buxton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Buxton
20%
Draws
52%
Hereford
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Hereford

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Hereford haven't matched Buxton's recent run of results.
  • Hereford are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular National League North form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Buxton Clean Sheet 18%
Hereford Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Buxton Hereford
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 12
Draws 3 5
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.79 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 National League North
Buxton vs Hereford
2:1
Mar 28, 2026 National League North
Hereford vs Buxton
0:2
Aug 19, 2025 National League North
Buxton vs Hereford
1:2
Feb 25, 2025 National League North
Hereford vs Buxton
2:1
Oct 12, 2024 National League North
Buxton vs Hereford
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Buxton Compare

Top Goalscorer Tuntulwana S.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Hereford Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Buxton 20 / 100
Hereford 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Buxton Hereford

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hereford Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Buxton scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

Hereford let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Buxton has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Buxton VS Hereford
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Buxton

(Home)
31 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1
Merthyr Town
28 Aug
Oxford City
2 : 3
Buxton
22 Aug
Buxton
1 : 2
Hebburn Town
18 Aug
Bedford
2 : 1
Buxton
15 Aug
Southport
1 : 1
Buxton
Page 1 of 6

Hereford

(Away)
31 Aug
Southport
0 : 1
Hereford
29 Aug
Hereford
1 : 1
Chester
22 Aug
Worksop
0 : 3
Hereford
18 Aug
Hereford
3 : 0
Radcliffe
15 Aug
Hereford
1 : 0
Marine
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Macclesfield 6 5 1 0 10:3 16
2 Hereford 6 4 1 1 10:3 13
3 Oxford City 6 4 1 1 10:5 13
4 Chester 6 4 1 1 7:3 13
5 Hebburn Town 6 4 1 1 11:8 13
6 Harborough 6 3 2 1 10:7 11
7 South Shields 5 3 2 0 6:3 11
8 Buxton 6 3 1 2 10:9 10
9 Scarborough Athletic 6 3 0 3 14:10 9
10 Bedford 6 3 0 3 9:10 9
11 Spalding United 6 2 2 2 6:4 8
12 Chorley 6 2 2 2 9:8 8
13 Morecambe 6 2 1 3 5:6 7
14 King’s Lynn 6 2 1 3 9:12 7
15 Merthyr Town 6 1 3 2 8:8 6
16 Marine 6 2 0 4 7:7 6
17 Hednesford 6 1 3 2 9:11 6
18 Darlington FC 6 2 0 4 8:11 6
19 Worksop 6 2 0 4 5:10 6
20 Brackley 5 1 2 2 6:8 5
21 Southport 6 1 2 3 9:13 5
22 Spennymoor 6 1 2 3 6:13 5
23 Radcliffe 6 1 0 5 3:11 3
24 Telford 6 0 2 4 6:10 2
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)