Sport Picks
Buxton vs Merthyr Town - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
National League North 
Match Events
17'
17'
Weston T.
45'
45'
Foulston J.
74'
74'
Williams J.
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
The National League North game between Buxton and Merthyr Town finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Buxton.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
50%
35%
15%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Buxton
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
50%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Buxton come out ahead of Merthyr Town on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Buxton's way, sitting at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Buxton have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Buxton Clean Sheet 20%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Buxton | Merthyr Town |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 17 | 7 |
| Draws | 3 | 10 |
| Losses | 8 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.96 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.36 | 1.55 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 31, 2026 National League North
Buxton vs Merthyr Town
2:1
Feb 28, 2026 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Buxton
1:3
Nov 29, 2025 National League North
Buxton vs Merthyr Town
1:2
Nov 5, 2022 FA Cup
Buxton vs Merthyr Town
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Buxton Compare
Top Goalscorer Weston T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Foulston J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Buxton 85 / 100
Merthyr Town 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Buxton Merthyr Town
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Buxton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Buxton scored in 82% of their last 28 games.
Defensive concern: Merthyr Town conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Buxton has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Buxton VS Merthyr Town
1.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Buxton
(Home) 31 Oct
Buxton
4 : 2 Marine
27 Oct
Buxton
3 : 0 Harborough
24 Oct
Chorley
2 : 3 Buxton
17 Oct
Buxton
2 : 2 Worksop
10 Oct
King’s Lynn
1 : 0 Buxton
Page 1 of 6
31 Oct
Buxton
4 : 2 Marine
27 Oct
Buxton
3 : 0 Harborough
17 Oct
Buxton
2 : 2 Worksop
03 Oct
Buxton
0 : 2 South Shields
19 Sept
Buxton
1 : 0 Ashton United
Page 1 of 4
Merthyr Town
(Away) 31 Oct
Radcliffe
3 : 3 Merthyr Town
27 Oct
Oxford City
3 : 0 Merthyr Town
24 Oct
Merthyr Town
1 : 3 Morecambe
17 Oct
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 King’s Lynn
10 Oct
Darlington FC
1 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 6
31 Oct
Radcliffe
3 : 3 Merthyr Town
27 Oct
Oxford City
3 : 0 Merthyr Town
10 Oct
Darlington FC
1 : 1 Merthyr Town
22 Sept
Truro
2 : 0 Merthyr Town
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Shields | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 26:11 | 27 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 21:11 | 27 |
| 4 | Hereford | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 24:11 | 26 |
| 5 | Buxton | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 30:25 | 26 |
| 6 | King’s Lynn | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25:21 | 24 |
| 7 | Hednesford | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 24:20 | 24 |
| 8 | Morecambe | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21:12 | 23 |
| 9 | Chester | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 17:14 | 23 |
| 10 | Bedford | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 17:19 | 22 |
| 11 | Spalding United | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:15 | 21 |
| 12 | Chorley | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 23:23 | 20 |
| 13 | Worksop | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 20:21 | 20 |
| 14 | Hebburn Town | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 19:24 | 20 |
| 15 | Telford | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 16:21 | 19 |
| 16 | Brackley | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 18:26 | 19 |
| 17 | Harborough | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13:17 | 17 |
| 18 | Marine | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17:19 | 16 |
| 19 | Merthyr Town | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 18:22 | 16 |
| 20 | Radcliffe | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 19:27 | 16 |
| 21 | Scarborough Athletic | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19:20 | 15 |
| 22 | Darlington FC | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 19:28 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14:25 | 10 |
| 24 | Spennymoor | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14:27 | 10 |
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