Sport Picks
Buxton vs Merthyr Town
England
National League North The Silverlands, Buxton 
Match Events
17'
17'
Weston T.
45'
45'
Foulston J.
74'
74'
Williams J.
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
The National League North game between Buxton and Merthyr Town finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Buxton.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
48%
20%
32%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Buxton
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
48%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Buxton come out ahead of Merthyr Town on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Buxton have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Buxton Clean Sheet 16%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Buxton | Merthyr Town |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 19 | 9 |
| Draws | 2 | 6 |
| Losses | 7 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 2.07 | 1.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.21 | 1.64 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 31, 2026 National League North
Buxton vs Merthyr Town
2:1
Feb 28, 2026 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Buxton
1:3
Nov 29, 2025 National League North
Buxton vs Merthyr Town
1:2
Nov 5, 2022 FA Cup
Buxton vs Merthyr Town
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Buxton Compare
Top Goalscorer Weston T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Foulston J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Buxton 30 / 100
Merthyr Town 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Buxton Merthyr Town
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Buxton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Buxton scored in 93% of their last 28 games.
Defensive concern: Merthyr Town conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Buxton has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Buxton VS Merthyr Town
2 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Buxton
(Home) 12 Sept
Buxton
3 : 1 Chester
08 Sept
Buxton
5 : 0 Brackley
05 Sept
Morecambe
4 : 0 Buxton
31 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
28 Aug
Oxford City
2 : 3 Buxton
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Buxton
3 : 1 Chester
08 Sept
Buxton
5 : 0 Brackley
31 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
22 Aug
Buxton
1 : 2 Hebburn Town
08 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1 Hereford
Page 1 of 3
Merthyr Town
(Away) 12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
05 Sept
Merthyr Town
2 : 1 Macclesfield
31 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
29 Aug
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Chorley
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
31 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
22 Aug
South Shields
1 : 1 Merthyr Town
15 Aug
Spennymoor
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21:4 | 22 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17:6 | 19 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 4 | Spalding United | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:6 | 17 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15:15 | 17 |
| 6 | South Shields | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9:10 | 17 |
| 7 | Buxton | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18:14 | 16 |
| 8 | Bedford | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13:13 | 15 |
| 9 | Chester | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9:8 | 14 |
| 10 | Morecambe | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13:8 | 13 |
| 11 | Merthyr Town | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11:9 | 13 |
| 12 | King’s Lynn | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 15:15 | 13 |
| 13 | Harborough | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 14 | Worksop | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9:12 | 12 |
| 15 | Scarborough Athletic | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14:11 | 11 |
| 16 | Chorley | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14:16 | 11 |
| 17 | Marine | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 10:11 | 9 |
| 18 | Telford | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8:10 | 9 |
| 19 | Hednesford | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13:16 | 9 |
| 20 | Southport | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 21 | Brackley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 22 | Radcliffe | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8:16 | 6 |
| 23 | Darlington FC | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11:20 | 6 |
| 24 | Spennymoor | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9:19 | 6 |
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Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
