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Buzios vs Serra Macaense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2
Sun, Sep 20, 2026
0 - 3
05:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Buzios host Serra Macaense in the Carioca B2. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Serra Macaense have shipped 1.03 goals a game lately, while Buzios have conceded 1.76 and scored 1.52. Past meetings favor Serra Macaense slightly — 0-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 20, 2026, ending 0:3. Model xG sits at 1.06 vs 1.63, favoring Serra Macaense. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Buzios
15%
Draws
68%
Serra Macaense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Serra Macaense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Serra Macaense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Serra Macaense's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Buzios Clean Sheet 14%
Serra Macaense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Buzios Serra Macaense
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 13
Draws 4 10
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 1.52 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Carioca B2
Buzios vs Serra Macaense
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Buzios 10 / 100
Serra Macaense 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Buzios Serra Macaense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serra Macaense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Buzios scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Serra Macaense conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Buzios stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Buzios VS Serra Macaense
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Buzios

(Home)
05 Oct
Campos AA
3 : 1
Buzios
01 Oct
Buzios
3 : 2
Paraty
28 Sept
Barra Mansa
1 : 0
Buzios
20 Sept
Buzios
0 : 3
Serra Macaense
13 Sept
Santa Cruz RJ
3 : 0
Buzios
Page 1 of 6

Serra Macaense

(Away)
05 Oct
Serra Macaense
3 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
01 Oct
Cardoso Moreira
2 : 3
Serra Macaense
27 Sept
Serra Macaense
2 : 1
FC Rio de Janeiro
20 Sept
Buzios
0 : 3
Serra Macaense
13 Sept
Serra Macaense
1 : 2
Paduano EC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Friburguense 7 5 2 0 12:4 17
2 Serra Macaense 7 4 1 2 14:8 13
3 Cardoso Moreira 7 4 1 2 9:5 13
4 Belford Roxo 7 3 3 1 14:6 12
5 Santa Cruz RJ 7 4 0 3 9:8 12
6 Paduano EC 7 3 2 2 9:6 11
7 FC Rio de Janeiro 7 3 1 3 11:7 10
8 7 de Abril 7 3 1 3 10:10 10
9 Campos AA 7 2 3 2 11:11 9
10 Barra Mansa 7 1 4 2 6:10 7
11 Buzios 7 1 0 6 5:18 3
12 Paraty 7 0 0 7 4:21 0
Promotion - Carioca B2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C 2027 (Main)