Sport Picks

Stadium Background

CA Cerro vs Juventud

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Guasone J.
19'
Cecchini E.
46'
Sub
Suarez D. In: Arguello M.
Out: Suarez D.

AI Match Summary

CA Cerro in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored CA Cerro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
CA Cerro
22%
Draws
18%
Juventud
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: CA Cerro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Juventud lately — more wins on the board than CA Cerro.
  • CA Cerro are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 68%
Juventud Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CA Cerro Juventud
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 8 10
Draws 6 9
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 0.5 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Juventud
1:0
Aug 31, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Juventud vs CA Cerro
1:0
Mar 8, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Juventud
2:1
Aug 25, 2022 Segunda Division
Juventud vs CA Cerro
1:1
May 29, 2022 Segunda Division
CA Cerro vs Juventud
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CA Cerro Compare

Top Goalscorer Lima A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Juventud Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CA Cerro 68 / 100
Juventud 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CA Cerro Juventud

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Juventud let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Juventud lost 3 of their last 5 games.

CA Cerro found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (28 games).

Scoring Trends

CA Cerro VS Juventud
0.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

CA Cerro

(Home)
12 Jul
Liverpool M.
1 : 2
CA Cerro
07 Jun
CA Cerro
0 : 1
Penarol
29 May
Cerro Largo
2 : 0
CA Cerro
24 May
CA Cerro
1 : 0
Central Esp.
16 May
Boston River
4 : 1
CA Cerro
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Juventud

(Away)
17 Jul
Albion
0 : 1
Juventud
11 Jul
Juventud
1 : 3
Montevideo City
05 Jul
Danubio
1 : 1
Juventud
06 Jun
Club Nacional
2 : 1
Juventud
31 May
Juventud
2 : 5
Wanderers
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Racing Montevideo1594223:1431
2Maldonado1592424:1629
3Albion1584326:1628
4Penarol1583423:1627
5Central Esp.1573523:2224
6Montevideo City1565422:1623
7Club Nacional1571726:2122
8Defensor Sp.1556413:1121
9Liverpool M.1555520:1820
10Wanderers1562716:2120
11Danubio1546517:2118
12Cerro Largo1552816:1917
13Boston River1552814:2017
14Juventud1543817:2215
15Progreso1524912:2310
16CA Cerro152498:2410
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)