Sport Picks
Match Events
48'
48'
Vila A.
66'
66'
Vila A.
87'
87'
Morales B.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-2. This leg finished 1-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
20%
57%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maldonado
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Maldonado lately — more wins on the board than CA Cerro.
- Model gives Maldonado a 57% chance of winning this.
- Maldonado arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Maldonado, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Maldonado here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 11%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | CA Cerro | Maldonado |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 15 |
| Draws | 6 | 8 |
| Losses | 15 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 0.9 | 1.76 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.57 | 0.79 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 23, 2026 Copa Uruguay
CA Cerro vs Maldonado
1:2
May 2, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Maldonado
0:1
Nov 8, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Maldonado
0:0
May 5, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs CA Cerro
3:0
Sep 3, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs CA Cerro
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
CA Cerro Compare
Top Goalscorer Morales B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Maldonado Compare
Top Goalscorer Vila A.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
CA Cerro 10 / 100
Maldonado 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
CA Cerro Maldonado
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Maldonado Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: CA Cerro scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Maldonado let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.
Recent resilience: CA Cerro stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
CA Cerro VS Maldonado
1.25 Goals Scored 2
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
CA Cerro
(Home) 31 Oct
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Central Esp.
25 Oct
Montevideo City
3 : 1 CA Cerro
16 Oct
CA Cerro
1 : 1 Cerro Largo
10 Oct
Defensor Sp.
2 : 3 CA Cerro
04 Oct
CA Cerro
0 : 2 Wanderers
Page 1 of 6
31 Oct
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Central Esp.
16 Oct
CA Cerro
1 : 1 Cerro Largo
04 Oct
CA Cerro
0 : 2 Wanderers
23 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Maldonado
19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Penarol
Page 1 of 3
Maldonado
(Away) 02 Nov
Albion
0 : 0 Maldonado
28 Oct
Porongos
0 : 4 Maldonado
24 Oct
Maldonado
2 : 1 Danubio
19 Oct
Club Nacional
3 : 2 Maldonado
15 Oct
Maldonado
4 : 1 Albion
Page 1 of 6
02 Nov
Albion
0 : 0 Maldonado
28 Oct
Porongos
0 : 4 Maldonado
19 Oct
Club Nacional
3 : 2 Maldonado
27 Sept
Montevideo City
0 : 2 Maldonado
23 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Maldonado
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 2 | Montevideo City | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 4 |
| 3 | Danubio | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:5 | 4 |
| 4 | Atenas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7:8 | 2 |
Promotion - Copa Uruguay (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Colonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 3 | Rentistas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 4 | Defensor Sp. | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:2 | 2 |
Promotion - Copa Uruguay (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maldonado | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:2 | 6 |
| 2 | Cerrito | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 3 | Wanderers | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:8 | 4 |
| 4 | CA Cerro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:5 | 1 |
Promotion - Copa Uruguay (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Esp. | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8:3 | 7 |
| 2 | Juventud | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 4 | Club Oriental De Futbol | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:4 | 1 |
Promotion - Copa Uruguay (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 5)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Nacional | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 2 | Albion | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | 5 |
| 3 | River Plate Montevideo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 4 | Progreso | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:5 | 0 |
Promotion - Copa Uruguay (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 6)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston River | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Liverpool M. | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 3 | Fenix | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:8 | 1 |
| 4 | Colon | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:8 | 1 |
Promotion - Copa Uruguay (Play Offs)
