Sport Picks
CA Cerro vs Montevideo City
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera, Montevideo 
Match Events
44'
44'
Bregante F.
58'
58'
Sub
Lecchini R. In: Andrade L.
Out: Lecchini R.
64'
64'
Sub
Quinteros B. In: Cristoforo S.
Out: Quinteros B.
AI Match Summary
The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between CA Cerro and Montevideo City finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
20%
57%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Montevideo City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- CA Cerro haven't matched Montevideo City's recent run of results.
- 57% — that's where the model lands on Montevideo City taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 11%
Montevideo City Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | CA Cerro | Montevideo City |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 17 |
| Draws | 5 | 4 |
| Losses | 15 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 0.79 | 1.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.45 | 1.28 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 19, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Montevideo City
1:1
Oct 18, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs CA Cerro
1:2
Apr 20, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Montevideo City
1:2
Nov 18, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs CA Cerro
1:0
Apr 16, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Montevideo City
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
CA Cerro Compare
Top Goalscorer Macelli A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Montevideo City Compare
Top Goalscorer Obregon E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
CA Cerro 22 / 100
Montevideo City 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
CA Cerro Montevideo City
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Montevideo City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
CA Cerro scored in 66% of their last 29 games.
Defensive concern: Montevideo City conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.
Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.
CA Cerro went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
CA Cerro VS Montevideo City
1 Goals Scored 2.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
CA Cerro
(Home) 27 Sept
Juventud
0 : 0 CA Cerro
23 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Maldonado
19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Penarol
13 Sept
Progreso
1 : 3 CA Cerro
10 Sept
CA Cerro
0 : 2 Cerrito
Page 1 of 6
23 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Maldonado
19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Penarol
10 Sept
CA Cerro
0 : 2 Cerrito
06 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 0 Racing Montevideo
15 Aug
CA Cerro
2 : 1 Albion
Page 1 of 3
Montevideo City
(Away) 27 Sept
Montevideo City
0 : 2 Maldonado
24 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 3 Atenas
21 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 4 Montevideo City
18 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 0 Cienciano
14 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 1 Liverpool M.
Page 1 of 6
21 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 4 Montevideo City
11 Sept
Cienciano
2 : 0 Montevideo City
29 Aug
Defensor Sp.
1 : 3 Montevideo City
26 Aug
Penarol
1 : 0 Montevideo City
15 Aug
Juventud
0 : 1 Montevideo City
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Esp. | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | 24 |
| 6 | Montevideo City | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sp. | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool M. | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 16 | CA Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | 10 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)
