Sport Picks

Stadium Background

CA Cerro vs Racing Montevideo

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Suarez D.
30'
Amaro J.
45'
Barros C.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between CA Cerro and Racing Montevideo finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CA Cerro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
CA Cerro
30%
Draws
33%
Racing Montevideo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: CA Cerro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • CA Cerro haven't matched Racing Montevideo's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 32%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 20%
Racing Montevideo Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CA Cerro Racing Montevideo
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 8 13
Draws 6 9
Losses 14 5
Goals Scored 0.71 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.46 0.78
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Racing Montevideo
1:0
Jul 26, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Racing Montevideo
1:0
Mar 8, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs CA Cerro
1:0
Jan 15, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Racing Montevideo vs CA Cerro
2:1
Aug 10, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Racing Montevideo
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CA Cerro Compare

Top Goalscorer Suarez D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Racing Montevideo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CA Cerro 32 / 100
Racing Montevideo 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CA Cerro Racing Montevideo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CA Cerro found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

CA Cerro went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Racing Montevideo let in goals in 59% of their last 27 matches.

Scoring Trends

CA Cerro VS Racing Montevideo
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

CA Cerro

(Home)
06 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 0
Racing Montevideo
01 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 1
CA Cerro
29 Aug
Boston River
1 : 1
CA Cerro
21 Aug
Liverpool M.
4 : 0
CA Cerro
15 Aug
CA Cerro
2 : 1
Albion
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Racing Montevideo

(Away)
09 Sept
Racing Montevideo
2 : 4
Central Esp.
06 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 0
Racing Montevideo
03 Sept
Club Oriental De Futbol
1 : 2
Racing Montevideo
31 Aug
Racing Montevideo
1 : 0
Albion
23 Aug
Danubio
0 : 0
Racing Montevideo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 5 4 1 0 11:1 13
2 CA Cerro 6 4 1 1 8:7 13
3 Montevideo City 4 4 0 0 11:3 12
4 Racing Montevideo 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
5 Penarol 5 3 1 1 9:3 9
6 Juventud 6 2 3 1 7:5 9
7 Maldonado 6 2 2 2 6:5 8
8 Boston River 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
9 Club Nacional 6 2 2 2 6:7 8
10 Wanderers 6 2 2 2 7:9 8
11 Progreso 6 2 0 4 3:7 6
12 Cerro Largo 6 0 5 1 5:6 5
13 Central Esp. 6 1 2 3 3:7 5
14 Defensor Sp. 6 1 2 3 4:10 5
15 Danubio 6 0 3 3 1:7 3
16 Albion 6 0 0 6 4:11 0
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)