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CA Cerro vs Racing Montevideo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera, Montevideo
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Match Events

9' Event
Suarez D.
30'
Amaro J.
45'
Barros C.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between CA Cerro and Racing Montevideo finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CA Cerro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
CA Cerro
20%
Draws
51%
Racing Montevideo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Racing Montevideo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • CA Cerro haven't matched Racing Montevideo's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Racing Montevideo's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 17%
Racing Montevideo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CA Cerro Racing Montevideo
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 9 10
Draws 6 10
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 0.9 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Racing Montevideo
1:0
Jul 26, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Racing Montevideo
1:0
Mar 8, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs CA Cerro
1:0
Jan 15, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Racing Montevideo vs CA Cerro
2:1
Aug 10, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Racing Montevideo
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CA Cerro Compare

Top Goalscorer Suarez D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Racing Montevideo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CA Cerro 23 / 100
Racing Montevideo 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CA Cerro Racing Montevideo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Racing Montevideo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CA Cerro found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Racing Montevideo conceded in 64% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

CA Cerro went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

CA Cerro VS Racing Montevideo
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

CA Cerro

(Home)
31 Oct
CA Cerro
1 : 2
Central Esp.
25 Oct
Montevideo City
3 : 1
CA Cerro
16 Oct
CA Cerro
1 : 1
Cerro Largo
10 Oct
Defensor Sp.
2 : 3
CA Cerro
04 Oct
CA Cerro
0 : 2
Wanderers
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Racing Montevideo

(Away)
31 Oct
Racing Montevideo
3 : 1
Cerro Largo
24 Oct
Defensor Sp.
3 : 3
Racing Montevideo
17 Oct
Racing Montevideo
3 : 0
Wanderers
11 Oct
Juventud
2 : 0
Racing Montevideo
04 Oct
Racing Montevideo
0 : 1
Penarol
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 13 9 3 1 22:8 30
2 Montevideo City 13 9 1 3 26:14 28
3 Club Nacional 13 8 2 3 19:13 26
4 Maldonado 13 6 4 3 18:10 22
5 Penarol 13 6 5 2 17:9 22
6 Racing Montevideo 13 5 4 4 18:14 19
7 Progreso 13 6 1 6 13:15 19
8 Juventud 13 4 6 3 12:10 18
9 CA Cerro 13 5 3 5 15:19 18
10 Wanderers 13 4 4 5 14:19 16
11 Boston River 13 4 3 6 15:17 15
12 Albion 13 4 1 8 15:20 13
13 Defensor Sp. 13 3 3 7 16:23 12
14 Danubio 13 2 4 7 7:15 10
15 Cerro Largo 13 1 6 6 10:17 9
16 Central Esp. 13 2 2 9 8:22 8
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)