Sport Picks

Stadium Background

CA Cerro vs Wanderers Prediction & H2H Stats

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera, Montevideo
Sun, Oct 4, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

CA Cerro host Wanderers in the Liga AUF Uruguaya. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: CA Cerro at 0.82 goals for, 1.5 against; Wanderers at 1.24 for, 1.45 against. Past meetings favor CA Cerro slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 1, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.50 - 1.31) back Wanderers to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
CA Cerro
20%
Draws
20%
Wanderers
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CA Cerro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Wanderers lately — more wins on the board than CA Cerro.
  • CA Cerro are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 18%
Wanderers Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CA Cerro Wanderers
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 10
Draws 4 8
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 0.82 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 1, 2026 Copa Uruguay
Wanderers vs CA Cerro
1:1
Mar 28, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Wanderers vs CA Cerro
3:0
Sep 26, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Wanderers vs CA Cerro
0:1
Jun 1, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Wanderers
1:2
Mar 31, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Wanderers
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CA Cerro 49 / 100
Wanderers 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CA Cerro Wanderers

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CA Cerro Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: CA Cerro scored in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Wanderers's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Wanderers lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

CA Cerro VS Wanderers
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

CA Cerro

(Home)
23 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2
Maldonado
19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2
Penarol
13 Sept
Progreso
1 : 3
CA Cerro
10 Sept
CA Cerro
0 : 2
Cerrito
06 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 0
Racing Montevideo
Page 1 of 6

Wanderers

(Away)
23 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 3
Cerrito
20 Sept
Danubio
1 : 1
Wanderers
12 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 1
Club Nacional
09 Sept
Maldonado
4 : 1
Wanderers
05 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0
Wanderers
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montevideo City 6 6 0 0 18:5 18
2 Liverpool M. 7 4 2 1 12:4 14
3 CA Cerro 7 4 1 2 9:9 13
4 Penarol 6 4 1 1 11:4 12
5 Juventud 7 3 3 1 10:6 12
6 Racing Montevideo 7 3 3 1 8:5 12
7 Maldonado 7 3 2 2 8:5 11
8 Club Nacional 7 3 2 2 9:9 11
9 Wanderers 7 2 3 2 8:10 9
10 Progreso 7 3 0 4 5:8 9
11 Boston River 7 2 2 3 9:10 8
12 Cerro Largo 7 0 5 2 5:8 5
13 Defensor Sp. 7 1 2 4 6:13 5
14 Central Esp. 7 1 2 4 4:11 5
15 Danubio 7 0 4 3 2:8 4
16 Albion 7 0 0 7 5:14 0
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)