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CA Itapemirim vs Vitoria ES

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Joao Paulo
46'
Sub
Iranildo In: Eliel
Out: Iranildo
46'
Sub
Meira Guimaraes K. In: Vandinho
Out: Meira Guimaraes K.

AI Match Summary

Vitoria ES in this Capixaba 2023 matchup, with the score ending 0-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vitoria ES.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
CA Itapemirim
15%
Draws
85%
Vitoria ES
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vitoria ES

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Vitoria ES have won more games recently than CA Itapemirim.
  • Vitoria ES are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Capixaba 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Vitoria ES have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
CA Itapemirim Clean Sheet 15%
Vitoria ES Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CA Itapemirim Vitoria ES
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 4 18
Draws 5 8
Losses 21 8
Goals Scored 0.8 1.76
Goals Conceded 2.2 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.55
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 11, 2023 Capixaba
CA Itapemirim vs Vitoria ES
0:5
Mar 14, 2020 Capixaba
CA Itapemirim vs Vitoria ES
0:3
Mar 30, 2019 Capixaba
Vitoria ES vs CA Itapemirim
2:1
Mar 24, 2019 Capixaba
CA Itapemirim vs Vitoria ES
2:2
Feb 3, 2019 Capixaba
Vitoria ES vs CA Itapemirim
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CA Itapemirim Compare

Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Vitoria ES Compare

Top Goalscorer Joao Paulo
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bonatti R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.41
Avg xA / game 0.86

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CA Itapemirim 10 / 100
Vitoria ES 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CA Itapemirim Vitoria ES

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vitoria ES Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Vitoria ES conceded in 62% of 34 recent games.

CA Itapemirim found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Away concern: Vitoria ES has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Vitoria ES
0 Goals Scored 2
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

CA Itapemirim

(Home)
11 Mar
CA Itapemirim
0 : 5
Vitoria ES
02 Mar
Rio Branco ES
2 : 1
CA Itapemirim
26 Feb
CA Itapemirim
0 : 5
Nova Venecia
15 Feb
Serra
2 : 0
CA Itapemirim
09 Feb
CA Itapemirim
0 : 2
Estrela do Norte
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Vitoria ES

(Away)
01 Jul
Vitoria ES
0 : 1
Rio Branco-VN
27 Jun
Betim FC
2 : 0
Vitoria ES
23 Jun
Vitoria ES
1 : 0
Vilavelhense
20 Jun
Vitoria ES
1 : 0
Betim FC
17 Jun
Vilavelhense
2 : 2
Vitoria ES
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria ES 9 6 1 2 20:8 19
2 Porto Vitoria 9 6 1 2 20:12 19
3 Real Noroeste 9 6 0 3 15:9 18
4 Nova Venecia 9 5 0 4 16:9 15
5 Rio Branco ES 9 5 0 4 11:12 15
6 Serra 9 4 3 2 15:11 15
7 Desportiva Ferroviaria 9 3 2 4 8:14 11
8 Estrela do Norte 9 3 1 5 9:11 10
9 Vilavelhense 9 2 2 5 12:16 8
10 CA Itapemirim 9 0 0 9 2:26 0
Promotion - Capixaba 2023 (Play Offs)