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Cabeza del Buey vs Moralo

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Alvarez A.
55' Event
Messaouri I.
76' Event
Silva Reis R. W.

AI Match Summary

Moralo in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Moralo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Cabeza del Buey
15%
Draws
53%
Moralo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Moralo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Moralo have won more games recently than Cabeza del Buey.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Cabeza del Buey Clean Sheet 20%
Moralo Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cabeza del Buey Moralo
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 15 20
Draws 7 8
Losses 9 5
Goals Scored 1.32 1.61
Goals Conceded 0.9 0.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Cabeza del Buey vs Moralo
1:3
Oct 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Moralo vs Cabeza del Buey
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cabeza del Buey Compare

Top Goalscorer Alvarez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Moralo Compare

Top Goalscorer Messaouri I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Silva Reis R. W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cabeza del Buey 32 / 100
Moralo 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cabeza del Buey Moralo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Cabeza del Buey's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Moralo conceded in 58% of 33 recent games.

Cabeza del Buey has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cabeza del Buey VS Moralo
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Cabeza del Buey

(Home)
20 Sept
Cabeza del Buey
1 : 2
CD Azuaga
13 Sept
Cabeza del Buey
0 : 1
Jerez CF
06 Sept
Montijo
1 : 3
Cabeza del Buey
10 May
Cabeza del Buey
1 : 0
Puebla de la Calzada
03 May
Jaraiz
2 : 1
Cabeza del Buey
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Moralo

(Away)
20 Sept
Moralo
2 : 0
CD Zafra
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3
Moralo
06 Sept
Moralo
2 : 1
Villanovense
07 Jun
CD Badajoz
0 : 0
Moralo
31 May
Moralo
0 : 2
CD Badajoz
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)