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Caboolture vs Logan Lightning

Australia Australia

Queensland Premier League Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Lumer T.
49'
Caspanello J.
50' Event
Waldock J.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Queensland Premier League matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Caboolture
33%
Draws
40%
Logan Lightning
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Logan Lightning

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Logan Lightning lately — more wins on the board than Caboolture.
  • Win probability leans Logan Lightning's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Caboolture Clean Sheet 10%
Logan Lightning Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caboolture Logan Lightning
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 11 13
Draws 4 5
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 2 2
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 Queensland Premier League
Logan Lightning vs Caboolture
1:3
Mar 21, 2026 Queensland Premier League
Caboolture vs Logan Lightning
2:2
Jun 7, 2025 Queensland Premier League
Caboolture vs Logan Lightning
7:0
Mar 1, 2025 Queensland Premier League
Logan Lightning vs Caboolture
2:2
Jun 8, 2024 Queensland Premier League
Caboolture vs Logan Lightning
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caboolture Compare

Top Goalscorer Waldock J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Logan Lightning Compare

Top Goalscorer Lumer T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Carre J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caboolture 26 / 100
Logan Lightning 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caboolture Logan Lightning

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LOG Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Caboolture scored in 81% of their last 31 outings.

Logan Lightning let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Solid form: Caboolture remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Caboolture VS Logan Lightning
2 Goals Scored 2
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Brisbane Strikers19153146:1548
2Broadbeach Utd.19144148:1846
3Ipswich1994632:2931
4Sunshine Coast Wanderers1986538:2630
5Robina City1884630:2028
6Caboolture1983835:3227
7Redlands1874735:3225
8Logan Lightning1973935:3724
9Holland Park Hawks1873829:3324
10St. George Willawong19411411:4113
11North Star19331318:4012
12Capalaba FC18221417:518