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Caboolture vs St. George Willawong

Australia Australia

Queensland Premier League Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Caboolture play St. George Willawong in the Queensland Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Caboolture averaged 2.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. St. George Willawong averaged 0.75 goals scored and 2.88 conceded. In past meetings, Caboolture won 0, St. George Willawong won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 18, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.63 for Caboolture and 1.25 for St. George Willawong. This points to a Caboolture double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Caboolture
39%
Draws
31%
St. George Willawong
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Caboolture has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to St. George Willawong.
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Queensland Premier League provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Caboolture Clean Sheet 19%
St. George Willawong Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caboolture St. George Willawong
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 5
Draws 5 5
Losses 13 19
Goals Scored 2.38 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.75 2.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 2.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Queensland Premier League
Caboolture vs St. George Willawong
1:1
Jul 6, 2024 Queensland Premier League
Caboolture vs St. George Willawong
2:3
Apr 7, 2024 Queensland Premier League
St. George Willawong vs Caboolture
4:0
Sep 12, 2020 Brisbane Premier League
Caboolture vs St. George Willawong
1:4
Mar 22, 2020 Brisbane Premier League
St. George Willawong vs Caboolture
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caboolture Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

St. George Willawong Compare

Top Goalscorer Thompson L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caboolture 31 / 100
St. George Willawong 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caboolture St. George Willawong

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caboolture scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

St. George Willawong let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Caboolture went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

St. George Willawong lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caboolture VS St. George Willawong
2.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Broadbeach Utd.18144047:1646
2Brisbane Strikers17133142:1442
3Sunshine Coast Wanderers1785436:2229
4Robina City1884630:2028
5Ipswich1884629:2728
6Caboolture1883735:3127
7Redlands1874735:3225
8Holland Park Hawks1873829:3324
9Logan Lightning1872933:3523
10North Star18331216:3712
11St. George Willawong18311410:4110
12Capalaba FC18221417:518