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Cacereno vs Lugo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 Estadio Principe Felipe, Cáceres
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Morchiladze T.
Assist: Costa A.
45'
Morchiladze T.
46'
Lucero R.

AI Match Summary

Lugo in this Primera RFEF - Group 1 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lugo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Cacereno
15%
Draws
64%
Lugo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lugo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Cacereno haven't matched Lugo's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Lugo's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Primera RFEF - Group 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Lugo here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Cacereno Clean Sheet 18%
Lugo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cacereno Lugo
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 12 17
Draws 9 7
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.23 1.32
Goals Conceded 1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Cacereno vs Lugo
1:2
Oct 4, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo vs Cacereno
1:0
Jan 23, 2011 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Cacereno vs Lugo
1:0
Sep 12, 2010 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Lugo vs Cacereno
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cacereno Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Lugo Compare

Top Goalscorer Morchiladze T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cacereno 23 / 100
Lugo 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cacereno Lugo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cacereno found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 1.75 goals when they meet.

Lugo let in goals in 58% of their last 31 matches.

Cacereno went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cacereno VS Lugo
1 Goals Scored 1.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cacereno

(Home)
31 Oct
Ath Bilbao B
3 : 1
Cacereno
24 Oct
Cacereno
1 : 0
Zamora
18 Oct
Pontevedra
1 : 0
Cacereno
10 Oct
Cacereno
1 : 1
Unionistas de Salamanca
04 Oct
AD Merida
2 : 0
Cacereno
Page 1 of 6

Lugo

(Away)
01 Nov
Lugo
2 : 1
AD Merida
23 Oct
Real Union
4 : 1
Lugo
17 Oct
Lugo
3 : 0
Deportivo Fabril
12 Oct
Lugo
3 : 1
UD Logrones
02 Oct
Real Aviles
1 : 2
Lugo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lugo 10 8 1 1 18:9 25
2 UD Logrones 10 6 2 2 20:13 20
3 Mirandes 10 5 2 3 13:10 17
4 Racing Club Ferrol 10 5 2 3 9:7 17
5 CD Extremadura 10 5 1 4 19:10 16
6 Ath Bilbao B 10 4 3 3 17:13 15
7 Pontevedra 10 4 3 3 12:11 15
8 Cacereno 10 4 3 3 9:8 15
9 Real Aviles 10 4 2 4 18:13 14
10 Ponferradina 10 3 5 2 6:6 14
11 Real Union 10 3 4 3 19:17 13
12 AD Merida 10 4 1 5 16:14 13
13 Leonesa 10 3 3 4 10:10 12
14 Zamora 10 3 3 4 11:12 12
15 Barakaldo 10 2 5 3 8:10 11
16 Deportivo Fabril 10 3 2 5 11:17 11
17 Unionistas de Salamanca 10 3 1 6 12:18 10
18 CD Coria 10 2 3 5 12:17 9
19 UD Ourense 10 2 2 6 4:15 8
20 Arenas Getxo 10 2 2 6 8:22 8
Promotion - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)