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Cacerense vs Cuiaba - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Cacerense Logo

Cacerense

2 - 5
FT
Cuiaba Logo

Cuiaba

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 2-5.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Cacerense
15%
Draws
51%
Cuiaba
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cuiaba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Cacerense haven't matched Cuiaba's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Cuiaba's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Cuiaba arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Cuiaba, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Cuiaba here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 42.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Cacerense Clean Sheet 10%
Cuiaba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cacerense Cuiaba
Matches Played 30 37
Wins 12 21
Draws 4 7
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.33 1.81
Goals Conceded 1.4 0.78
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Cuiaba vs Cacerense
2:0
Sep 26, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Cacerense vs Cuiaba
2:5
Mar 4, 2023 Matogrossense
Cacerense vs Cuiaba
0:1
Mar 12, 2015 Matogrossense
Cacerense vs Cuiaba
0:2
Feb 11, 2015 Matogrossense
Cuiaba vs Cacerense
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cacerense 10 / 100
Cuiaba 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cacerense Cuiaba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cuiaba Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Cacerense scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Cuiaba conceded in 54% of 37 recent games.

Solid form: Cacerense remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Cacerense VS Cuiaba
2 Goals Scored 2.13
2 Goals Conceded 0.75
80% Over 1.5 88%
60% Over 2.5 50%
60% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cacerense

(Home)
24 Oct
Cacerense
0 : 1
Sorriso EC
11 Oct
Campo Novo
0 : 5
Cacerense
03 Oct
Cuiaba
2 : 0
Cacerense
26 Sept
Cacerense
2 : 5
Cuiaba
19 Sept
Cacerense
3 : 2
Campo Novo
Page 1 of 6

Cuiaba

(Away)
04 Nov
Cuiaba
3 : 1
Uniao Rondonopolis
01 Nov
Cuiaba
1 : 2
Sao Bernardo
29 Oct
Uniao Rondonopolis
0 : 3
Cuiaba
26 Oct
America MG
1 : 0
Cuiaba
21 Oct
Cuiaba
8 : 0
Campo Novo
Page 1 of 8

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chapada 8 6 1 1 16:4 19
2 Uniao Rondonopolis 8 5 1 2 12:7 16
3 Santa Cruz MT 8 4 0 4 17:12 12
4 Várzea Grande EC 8 2 0 6 12:25 6
5 Uirapuru 8 1 2 5 8:17 5
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cuiaba 6 6 0 0 24:4 18
2 Sorriso EC 6 3 0 3 12:10 9
3 Cacerense 6 3 0 3 12:11 9
4 Campo Novo 6 0 0 6 3:26 0
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)