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Stadium Background

Caen vs Rouen

France France

Ligue 3 Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Appiah D.
Assist: Botella I.
14'
El Khoumisti F.
38'
Bassin C.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 3 game between Caen and Rouen finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Caen
15%
Draws
45%
Rouen
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rouen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Caen's 1.7 goals per match outpaces what Rouen have produced (1.33).
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Caen Clean Sheet 17%
Rouen Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caen Rouen
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 12
Draws 9 11
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.7 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.27 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 24, 2026 Ligue 3
Caen vs Rouen
3:2
Mar 27, 2026 Ligue 3
Rouen vs Caen
1:1
Oct 21, 2025 Ligue 3
Caen vs Rouen
1:1
Jul 9, 2013 Club Friendly
Caen vs Rouen
0:0
May 12, 2004 Ligue 2
Rouen vs Caen
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caen Compare

Top Goalscorer Gnanduillet A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Appiah D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Rouen Compare

Top Goalscorer Tchokounte M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Viana J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caen 31 / 100
Rouen 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caen Rouen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rouen Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caen found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Rouen's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Caen went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caen VS Rouen
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Caen

(Home)
24 Sept
Caen
3 : 2
Rouen
19 Sept
Concarneau
2 : 0
Caen
12 Sept
Caen
2 : 0
Paris 13 Atletico
05 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 2
Caen
27 Aug
Caen
0 : 1
Bastia
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Rouen

(Away)
24 Sept
Caen
3 : 2
Rouen
19 Sept
Rouen
1 : 0
Aubagne FC
12 Sept
Thionville
0 : 4
Rouen
03 Sept
Rouen
1 : 1
Valenciennes
29 Aug
Villefranche
0 : 2
Rouen
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Roche Vendee 8 5 3 0 12:7 18
2 Rouen 8 5 2 1 15:5 17
3 Caen 8 5 0 3 15:9 15
4 Concarneau 8 3 4 1 10:7 13
5 Versailles 8 4 1 3 12:12 13
6 Amiens SC 8 3 3 2 9:3 12
7 Cannes 8 2 6 0 8:3 12
8 Thionville 8 3 3 2 14:13 12
9 Paris 13 Atletico 8 3 3 2 6:7 12
10 Le Puy-en-Velay 8 3 1 4 10:9 10
11 Quevilly 8 2 4 2 7:9 10
12 Bastia 8 3 1 4 6:10 10
13 Fleury 91 8 2 3 3 12:10 9
14 Valenciennes 8 2 2 4 9:13 8
15 Orleans 8 2 2 4 6:10 8
16 Aubagne FC 8 2 1 5 5:9 7
17 Bourg Peronnas 8 1 2 5 5:13 5
18 Villefranche 8 1 1 6 7:19 4
Promotion - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Relegation)