Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Caen vs Valenciennes

France France

Ligue 3 Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
El Khoumisti F.
Assist: Bagbema Z.
39' Event
El Khoumisti F.
Assist: Milliner L.
44'
Goprou D.

AI Match Summary

Caen in this Ligue 3 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Caen
20%
Draws
29%
Valenciennes
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Caen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Caen lately — more wins on the board than Valenciennes.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Caen taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Caen Clean Sheet 68%
Valenciennes Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caen Valenciennes
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.72 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 7, 2026 Ligue 3
Caen vs Valenciennes
4:0
Feb 28, 2026 Ligue 3
Valenciennes vs Caen
2:1
Sep 19, 2025 Ligue 3
Caen vs Valenciennes
0:0
May 17, 2024 Ligue 2
Caen vs Valenciennes
3:0
Oct 28, 2023 Ligue 2
Valenciennes vs Caen
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caen Compare

Top Goalscorer El Khoumisti F.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Valenciennes Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caen 59 / 100
Valenciennes 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caen Valenciennes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caen's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Valenciennes let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Caen has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Caen VS Valenciennes
2.13 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Caen

(Home)
24 Sept
Caen
3 : 2
Rouen
19 Sept
Concarneau
2 : 0
Caen
12 Sept
Caen
2 : 0
Paris 13 Atletico
05 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 2
Caen
27 Aug
Caen
0 : 1
Bastia
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Valenciennes

(Away)
26 Sept
Valenciennes
2 : 1
Le Puy-en-Velay
19 Sept
La Roche Vendee
3 : 2
Valenciennes
12 Sept
Valenciennes
1 : 2
Fleury 91
03 Sept
Rouen
1 : 1
Valenciennes
29 Aug
Valenciennes
0 : 0
Concarneau
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Roche Vendee 8 5 3 0 12:7 18
2 Rouen 8 5 2 1 15:5 17
3 Caen 8 5 0 3 15:9 15
4 Concarneau 8 3 4 1 10:7 13
5 Versailles 8 4 1 3 12:12 13
6 Amiens SC 8 3 3 2 9:3 12
7 Cannes 8 2 6 0 8:3 12
8 Thionville 8 3 3 2 14:13 12
9 Paris 13 Atletico 8 3 3 2 6:7 12
10 Le Puy-en-Velay 8 3 1 4 10:9 10
11 Quevilly 8 2 4 2 7:9 10
12 Bastia 8 3 1 4 6:10 10
13 Fleury 91 8 2 3 3 12:10 9
14 Valenciennes 8 2 2 4 9:13 8
15 Orleans 8 2 2 4 6:10 8
16 Aubagne FC 8 2 1 5 5:9 7
17 Bourg Peronnas 8 1 2 5 5:13 5
18 Villefranche 8 1 1 6 7:19 4
Promotion - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Relegation)