Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Caerau Ely vs Cwmbran Celtic

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South 2025/2026 game between Caerau Ely and Cwmbran Celtic finished 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Caerau Ely
15%
Draws
21%
Cwmbran Celtic
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caerau Ely

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Caerau Ely carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Caerau Ely are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Cymru South 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 68%
Cwmbran Celtic Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caerau Ely Cwmbran Celtic
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 14 1
Draws 5 7
Losses 8 22
Goals Scored 2.37 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.48 2.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Cwmbran Celtic
0:0
Oct 10, 2025 Cymru South
Cwmbran Celtic vs Caerau Ely
0:2
Jan 3, 2025 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Cwmbran Celtic
1:2
Oct 5, 2024 Cymru South
Cwmbran Celtic vs Caerau Ely
3:2
Jan 12, 2024 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Cwmbran Celtic
4:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caerau Ely 95 / 100
Cwmbran Celtic 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caerau Ely Cwmbran Celtic

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caerau Ely Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Caerau Ely scored in 81% of their last 27 outings.

Cwmbran Celtic's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Caerau Ely has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Caerau Ely VS Cwmbran Celtic
0.88 Goals Scored 2
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
38% Over 1.5 100%
13% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Caerau Ely

(Home)
11 Sept
Caerau Ely
3 : 0
Llanelli
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2
Treowen
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1
Caerau Ely
21 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 5
Pure Swansea
14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4
Caerau Ely
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Cwmbran Celtic

(Away)
18 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
1 : 2
Ammanford Town
11 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
3 : 1
Aberystwyth
03 Apr
Afan Lido
4 : 1
Cwmbran Celtic
30 Mar
Cwmbran Celtic
1 : 8
Trefelin
27 Mar
Cwmbran Celtic
1 : 2
Cambrian United
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trefelin 30 25 3 2 83:17 78
2 Cambrian United 30 24 4 2 75:20 76
3 Ammanford Town 30 17 9 4 49:26 60
4 Caerau Ely 30 17 6 7 66:34 57
5 Carmarthen Town 30 11 12 7 45:38 45
6 Aberystwyth 30 13 5 12 35:38 44
7 Cardiff Draconians 30 12 4 14 50:48 40
8 Llantwit Major 30 9 10 11 44:47 37
9 Treowen 30 10 7 13 51:63 37
10 Newport City 30 9 10 11 36:48 37
11 Pontypridd United 30 9 7 14 46:51 34
12 Afan Lido 30 9 3 18 32:57 30
13 Trethomas Bluebirds 30 6 11 13 45:62 29
14 Baglan Dragons 30 5 10 15 26:52 25
15 Ynyshir Albions 30 5 8 17 27:56 23
16 Cwmbran Celtic 30 1 7 22 25:78 10
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Main)