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Stadium Background

Caerau Ely vs Llanelli - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Parker T.
82' Event
Griffiths D.
85' Event
Bahumaid J.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South game between Caerau Ely and Llanelli finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caerau Ely.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

77%
Caerau Ely
15%
Draws
8%
Llanelli
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caerau Ely

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / Very High Confidence
  • Llanelli haven't matched Caerau Ely's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Caerau Ely a 77% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 20%
Llanelli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caerau Ely Llanelli
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 15 2
Draws 5 5
Losses 8 24
Goals Scored 2.29 0.68
Goals Conceded 1.36 2.97
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 16, 2026 FAW Welsh Cup
Caerau Ely vs Llanelli
6:0
Sep 11, 2026 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Llanelli
3:0
Mar 7, 2025 Cymru South
Llanelli vs Caerau Ely
3:1
Oct 11, 2024 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Llanelli
1:2
Nov 3, 2023 Cymru South
Llanelli vs Caerau Ely
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caerau Ely Compare

Top Goalscorer Parker T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Griffiths D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

Llanelli Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caerau Ely 85 / 100
Llanelli 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caerau Ely Llanelli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caerau Ely Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caerau Ely scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Llanelli let in goals in 97% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Solid form: Caerau Ely remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Caerau Ely VS Llanelli
2.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 3.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Caerau Ely

(Home)
06 Nov
Caerau Ely
1 : 3
Pontypridd United
30 Oct
Caerphilly
0 : 1
Caerau Ely
23 Oct
Caerau Ely
0 : 2
Llantwit Major
16 Oct
Caerau Ely
6 : 0
Llanelli
10 Oct
Aberystwyth
0 : 1
Caerau Ely
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Llanelli

(Away)
06 Nov
Llanelli
3 : 3
Pontardawe
30 Oct
Pontypridd United
4 : 0
Llanelli
23 Oct
Llanelli
0 : 3
Afan Lido
16 Oct
Caerau Ely
6 : 0
Llanelli
10 Oct
Ynyshir Albions
6 : 2
Llanelli
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pontypridd United 13 8 3 2 35:22 27
2 Aberystwyth 10 7 1 2 24:10 22
3 Caerau Ely 13 7 1 5 24:23 22
4 Pure Swansea 10 6 3 1 32:15 21
5 Baglan Dragons 13 6 2 5 14:14 20
6 Ynyshir Albions 11 5 4 2 20:13 19
7 Afan Lido 14 5 3 6 24:26 18
8 Treowen 12 5 2 5 22:23 17
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 12 4 4 4 24:21 16
10 Carmarthen Town 12 4 3 5 24:26 15
11 Pontardawe 11 4 2 5 20:21 14
12 Caerphilly 13 4 2 7 17:24 14
13 Newport City 11 3 4 4 21:17 13
14 Cardiff Draconians 10 3 3 4 14:17 12
15 Llantwit Major 11 3 2 6 12:24 11
16 Llanelli 14 0 3 11 12:43 3
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)