Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Caerau Ely vs Llanelli

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Parker T.
82' Event
Griffiths D.
85' Event
Bahumaid J.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South game between Caerau Ely and Llanelli finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caerau Ely.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

77%
Caerau Ely
15%
Draws
8%
Llanelli
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caerau Ely

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / Very High Confidence
  • Llanelli haven't matched Caerau Ely's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Caerau Ely a 77% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Llanelli have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 18%
Llanelli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caerau Ely Llanelli
Matches Played 35 32
Wins 18 4
Draws 7 5
Losses 10 23
Goals Scored 2.37 0.81
Goals Conceded 1.49 2.56
Expected Goals (xG) 2.56 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Llanelli
3:0
Mar 7, 2025 Cymru South
Llanelli vs Caerau Ely
3:1
Oct 11, 2024 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Llanelli
1:2
Nov 3, 2023 Cymru South
Llanelli vs Caerau Ely
4:0
Oct 27, 2023 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Llanelli
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caerau Ely Compare

Top Goalscorer Parker T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Griffiths D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.97
Avg xA / game 1.28

Llanelli Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caerau Ely 85 / 100
Llanelli 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caerau Ely Llanelli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caerau Ely Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caerau Ely scored in 86% of their last 35 games.

Llanelli let in goals in 88% of their last 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Caerau Ely stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caerau Ely VS Llanelli
1.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 3.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Caerau Ely

(Home)
11 Sept
Caerau Ely
3 : 0
Llanelli
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2
Treowen
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1
Caerau Ely
21 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 5
Pure Swansea
14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4
Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 7

Llanelli

(Away)
11 Sept
Caerau Ely
3 : 0
Llanelli
04 Sept
Llanelli
0 : 2
Treowen
31 Aug
Aberystwyth
4 : 0
Llanelli
28 Aug
Llanelli
2 : 2
Carmarthen Town
22 Aug
Cardiff Draconians
4 : 2
Llanelli
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 6 5 1 0 22:5 16
2 Aberystwyth 6 5 0 1 19:7 15
3 Treowen 7 4 1 2 16:10 13
4 Pontypridd United 6 4 1 1 16:11 13
5 Baglan Dragons 8 4 1 3 8:8 13
6 Carmarthen Town 7 3 2 2 17:16 11
7 Caerau Ely 7 3 1 3 16:17 10
8 Afan Lido 8 3 1 4 13:15 10
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 7 2 3 2 14:13 9
10 Ynyshir Albions 6 2 3 1 6:5 9
11 Caerphilly 7 2 2 3 7:12 8
12 Cardiff Draconians 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
13 Newport City 5 2 0 3 9:5 6
14 Pontardawe 6 1 0 5 5:13 3
15 Llanelli 8 0 2 6 6:23 2
16 Llantwit Major 5 0 1 4 2:15 1
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)