Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Caerau Ely vs Pontardawe

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Redhead O.
40' Event
Dorward J.
52' Event
Griffiths B. L.

AI Match Summary

Caerau Ely in this Cymru South 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caerau Ely.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Caerau Ely
15%
Draws
26%
Pontardawe
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caerau Ely

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Pontardawe haven't matched Caerau Ely's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Caerau Ely's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 19%
Pontardawe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caerau Ely Pontardawe
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 14 6
Draws 5 6
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 2.52 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.63 2.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Cymru South
Pontardawe vs Caerau Ely
0:0
Apr 13, 2024 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Pontardawe
3:1
Jan 27, 2024 Cymru South
Pontardawe vs Caerau Ely
3:6
Dec 27, 2014 Division 1
Caerau Ely vs Pontardawe
0:1
Sep 13, 2014 Division 1
Pontardawe vs Caerau Ely
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caerau Ely Compare

Top Goalscorer Redhead O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Griffiths B. L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Pontardawe Compare

Top Goalscorer Dorward J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caerau Ely 49 / 100
Pontardawe 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caerau Ely Pontardawe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caerau Ely Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caerau Ely found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (27 games).

Pontardawe has conceded goals in 85% of their last 27 outings.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Caerau Ely went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caerau Ely VS Pontardawe
1.63 Goals Scored 0.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Caerau Ely

(Home)
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2
Treowen
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1
Caerau Ely
21 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 5
Pure Swansea
14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4
Caerau Ely
07 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 1
Ynyshir Albions
Page 1 of 6

Pontardawe

(Away)
28 Aug
Aberystwyth
1 : 0
Pontardawe
21 Aug
Afan Lido
1 : 0
Pontardawe
15 Aug
Pontardawe
0 : 4
Newport City
07 Aug
Pontypridd United
3 : 2
Pontardawe
01 Aug
Pontardawe
3 : 0
Caerphilly
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Briton Ferry 30 23 2 5 87:39 71
2 Llanelli 30 20 4 6 80:40 64
3 Ammanford Town 30 17 6 7 60:42 57
4 Cambrian United 30 14 8 8 60:37 50
5 Caerau Ely 30 15 4 11 72:60 49
6 Carmarthen Town 30 12 11 7 50:39 47
7 Afan Lido 30 14 4 12 68:56 46
8 Goytre Utd 30 12 7 11 58:59 43
9 Cwmbran Celtic 30 12 6 12 69:64 42
10 Baglan Dragons 30 11 8 11 46:41 41
11 Trefelin 30 10 8 12 47:63 38
12 Llantwit Major 30 9 8 13 44:54 35
13 Taffs Well 30 8 8 14 44:49 32
14 Pontardawe 30 8 8 14 52:70 32
15 Abertillery Bluebirds 30 3 6 21 34:94 15
16 Abergavenny Town 30 2 2 26 20:84 8
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2024/2025 (Main)