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Stadium Background

Caerau Ely vs Pure Swansea - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Bishop L.
57' Event
Hughes J.
67' Event
Coughlin C.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South game between Caerau Ely and Pure Swansea finished 1-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pure Swansea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Caerau Ely
20%
Draws
32%
Pure Swansea
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Caerau Ely

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Caerau Ely come out ahead of Pure Swansea on wins alone.
  • Model gives Caerau Ely a 48% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Pure Swansea have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 10%
Pure Swansea Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caerau Ely Pure Swansea
Matches Played 35 29
Wins 23 11
Draws 5 8
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 2.49 1.79
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Pure Swansea
1:5
Apr 1, 2020 Cymru South
Pure Swansea vs Caerau Ely
0:0
Sep 28, 2019 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Pure Swansea
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caerau Ely Compare

Top Goalscorer Bishop L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Pure Swansea Compare

Top Goalscorer Gibbings B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Hughes J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caerau Ely 56 / 100
Pure Swansea 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caerau Ely Pure Swansea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caerau Ely Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caerau Ely found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (35 games).

Games between these two average 3.67 goals.

Pure Swansea let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Caerau Ely has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Caerau Ely VS Pure Swansea
2.25 Goals Scored 3.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Caerau Ely

(Home)
30 Oct
Caerphilly
0 : 1
Caerau Ely
23 Oct
Caerau Ely
0 : 2
Llantwit Major
16 Oct
Caerau Ely
6 : 0
Llanelli
10 Oct
Aberystwyth
0 : 1
Caerau Ely
02 Oct
Caerau Ely
2 : 0
Afan Lido
Page 1 of 7

Pure Swansea

(Away)
31 Oct
Ynyshir Albions
4 : 2
Pure Swansea
09 Oct
Afan Lido
5 : 5
Pure Swansea
03 Oct
Pure Swansea
3 : 1
Caerphilly
25 Sept
Aberystwyth
0 : 0
Pure Swansea
11 Sept
Pure Swansea
4 : 0
Pontardawe
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pontypridd United 12 7 3 2 32:21 24
2 Aberystwyth 10 7 1 2 24:10 22
3 Caerau Ely 12 7 1 4 23:20 22
4 Pure Swansea 10 6 3 1 32:15 21
5 Ynyshir Albions 10 5 4 1 19:11 19
6 Baglan Dragons 12 5 2 5 12:13 17
7 Trethomas Bluebirds 12 4 4 4 24:21 16
8 Treowen 11 5 1 5 20:21 16
9 Carmarthen Town 12 4 3 5 24:26 15
10 Afan Lido 13 4 3 6 21:24 15
11 Caerphilly 12 4 2 6 15:21 14
12 Pontardawe 10 4 1 5 17:18 13
13 Newport City 10 3 3 4 19:15 12
14 Cardiff Draconians 10 3 3 4 14:17 12
15 Llantwit Major 11 3 2 6 12:24 11
16 Llanelli 13 0 2 11 9:40 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)