Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Caerau Ely vs Pure Swansea

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Bishop L.
57' Event
Hughes J.
67' Event
Coughlin C.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South game between Caerau Ely and Pure Swansea finished 1-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pure Swansea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Caerau Ely
15%
Draws
50%
Pure Swansea
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pure Swansea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Caerau Ely come out ahead of Pure Swansea on wins alone.
  • Model gives Pure Swansea a 50% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Pure Swansea have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 40.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 10%
Pure Swansea Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caerau Ely Pure Swansea
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 13
Draws 5 6
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 2.34 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Pure Swansea
1:5
Apr 1, 2020 Cymru South
Pure Swansea vs Caerau Ely
0:0
Sep 28, 2019 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Pure Swansea
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caerau Ely Compare

Top Goalscorer Bishop L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Pure Swansea Compare

Top Goalscorer Gibbings B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Hughes J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caerau Ely 10 / 100
Pure Swansea 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caerau Ely Pure Swansea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pure Swansea Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caerau Ely found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 3.67 goals.

Pure Swansea let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Caerau Ely has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Caerau Ely VS Pure Swansea
1.63 Goals Scored 3.14
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.71
63% Over 1.5 86%
50% Over 2.5 86%
38% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Caerau Ely

(Home)
11 Sept
Caerau Ely
3 : 0
Llanelli
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2
Treowen
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1
Caerau Ely
21 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 5
Pure Swansea
14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4
Caerau Ely
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Pure Swansea

(Away)
11 Sept
Pure Swansea
4 : 0
Pontardawe
28 Aug
Pure Swansea
4 : 4
Pontypridd United
21 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 5
Pure Swansea
15 Aug
Pure Swansea
3 : 0
Llanelli
09 Aug
Baglan Dragons
0 : 3
Pure Swansea
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 6 5 1 0 22:5 16
2 Aberystwyth 6 5 0 1 19:7 15
3 Treowen 7 4 1 2 16:10 13
4 Pontypridd United 6 4 1 1 16:11 13
5 Baglan Dragons 8 4 1 3 8:8 13
6 Carmarthen Town 7 3 2 2 17:16 11
7 Caerau Ely 7 3 1 3 16:17 10
8 Afan Lido 8 3 1 4 13:15 10
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 7 2 3 2 14:13 9
10 Ynyshir Albions 6 2 3 1 6:5 9
11 Caerphilly 7 2 2 3 7:12 8
12 Cardiff Draconians 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
13 Newport City 5 2 0 3 9:5 6
14 Pontardawe 6 1 0 5 5:13 3
15 Llanelli 8 0 2 6 6:23 2
16 Llantwit Major 5 0 1 4 2:15 1
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)