Sport Picks
Match Events
36'
36'
Sunley P.
41'
41'
Sheppard G.
57'
57'
Gorojovas N.
AI Match Summary
The Cymru South 2024/2025 game between Caerau Ely and Taffs Well finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caerau Ely.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
46%
15%
39%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caerau Ely
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Caerau Ely come out ahead of Taffs Well on wins alone.
- 46% — that's where the model lands on Caerau Ely taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Caerau Ely have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 20%
Taffs Well Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Caerau Ely | Taffs Well |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 33 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 3 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 10 | 22 |
| Goals Scored | 2.24 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.48 | 2.67 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.42 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 4, 2025 Club Friendly
Taffs Well vs Caerau Ely
0:4
Feb 28, 2025 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Taffs Well
3:1
Aug 9, 2024 Cymru South
Taffs Well vs Caerau Ely
0:3
Mar 22, 2024 Cymru South
Taffs Well vs Caerau Ely
1:2
Feb 27, 2024 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Taffs Well
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Caerau Ely Compare
Top Goalscorer Sunley P.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sheppard G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71
Taffs Well Compare
Top Goalscorer Gorojovas N.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Caerau Ely 85 / 100
Taffs Well 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Caerau Ely Taffs Well
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Caerau Ely Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Caerau Ely scored in 85% of their last 33 outings.
Taffs Well let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Caerau Ely went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Caerau Ely VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
0.25 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Caerau Ely
(Home) 31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2 Treowen
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1 Caerau Ely
21 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 5 Pure Swansea
14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4 Caerau Ely
07 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 1 Ynyshir Albions
Page 1 of 7
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2 Treowen
21 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 5 Pure Swansea
07 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 1 Ynyshir Albions
25 Jul
Caerau Ely
4 : 4 Barnstaple Town
03 Jul
Caerau Ely
5 : 1 Croesyceiliog FC
Page 1 of 4
Taffs Well
(Away) 18 Oct
Cardiff Metropolitan University
5 : 1 Taffs Well
20 Sept
Taffs Well
2 : 1 Abertillery Excelsiors
04 Jul
Taffs Well
0 : 4 Caerau Ely
25 Jun
Taffs Well
4 : 1 Cwmbran Town
21 Jun
Taffs Well
1 : 5 Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 6
18 Oct
Cardiff Metropolitan University
5 : 1 Taffs Well
04 Apr
Trefelin
2 : 0 Taffs Well
22 Mar
Baglan Dragons
1 : 1 Taffs Well
28 Feb
Caerau Ely
3 : 1 Taffs Well
15 Feb
Cwmbran Celtic
2 : 2 Taffs Well
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Llanelli | 30 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 64:25 | 64 |
| 2 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 53:33 | 59 |
| 3 | Newport City | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 50:32 | 54 |
| 4 | Trefelin | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 54:41 | 53 |
| 5 | Pontypridd United | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 54:44 | 53 |
| 6 | Cambrian United | 30 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 50:38 | 47 |
| 7 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 55:44 | 45 |
| 8 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 44:34 | 43 |
| 9 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 37:34 | 43 |
| 10 | Ammanford Town | 30 | 11 | 3 | 16 | 47:50 | 36 |
| 11 | Afan Lido | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 44:51 | 34 |
| 12 | Caerau Ely | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 42:43 | 32 |
| 13 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 39:62 | 30 |
| 14 | Penrhiwceiber Rangers | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 30:57 | 28 |
| 15 | Goytre Utd | 30 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 41:72 | 23 |
| 16 | Taffs Well | 30 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 32:76 | 15 |
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2025/2026 (Main)
