Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Caerau Ely vs Ynyshir Albions

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Lewis C.
(Penalty)
86' Event
Griffiths D.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South 2025/2026 game between Caerau Ely and Ynyshir Albions finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caerau Ely.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Caerau Ely
30%
Draws
28%
Ynyshir Albions
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Caerau Ely

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Caerau Ely carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Caerau Ely a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Caerau Ely have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 15%
Ynyshir Albions Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caerau Ely Ynyshir Albions
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 13 6
Draws 5 10
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 2.31 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 7, 2026 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Ynyshir Albions
1:1
Apr 4, 2026 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Ynyshir Albions
2:0
Jul 26, 2025 Cymru South
Ynyshir Albions vs Caerau Ely
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caerau Ely Compare

Top Goalscorer Griffiths D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Ynyshir Albions Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caerau Ely 41 / 100
Ynyshir Albions 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caerau Ely Ynyshir Albions

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Caerau Ely scored in 81% of their last 26 outings.

Defensive concern: Ynyshir Albions conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Caerau Ely has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Caerau Ely VS Ynyshir Albions
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Caerau Ely

(Home)
26 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 3
Caerau Ely
11 Sept
Caerau Ely
3 : 0
Llanelli
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2
Treowen
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1
Caerau Ely
21 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 5
Pure Swansea
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Ynyshir Albions

(Away)
26 Sept
Ynyshir Albions
1 : 1
Trethomas Bluebirds
12 Sept
Carmarthen Town
2 : 2
Ynyshir Albions
31 Aug
Afan Lido
0 : 0
Ynyshir Albions
28 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1
Ynyshir Albions
22 Aug
Caerphilly
2 : 1
Ynyshir Albions
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trefelin 30 25 3 2 83:17 78
2 Cambrian United 30 24 4 2 75:20 76
3 Ammanford Town 30 17 9 4 49:26 60
4 Caerau Ely 30 17 6 7 66:34 57
5 Carmarthen Town 30 11 12 7 45:38 45
6 Aberystwyth 30 13 5 12 35:38 44
7 Cardiff Draconians 30 12 4 14 50:48 40
8 Llantwit Major 30 9 10 11 44:47 37
9 Treowen 30 10 7 13 51:63 37
10 Newport City 30 9 10 11 36:48 37
11 Pontypridd United 30 9 7 14 46:51 34
12 Afan Lido 30 9 3 18 32:57 30
13 Trethomas Bluebirds 30 6 11 13 45:62 29
14 Baglan Dragons 30 5 10 15 26:52 25
15 Ynyshir Albions 30 5 8 17 27:56 23
16 Cwmbran Celtic 30 1 7 22 25:78 10
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Main)