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Caernarfon vs Cambrian United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier The Oval, Caernarfon
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Evans A.
22' Event
Clarke Z.
27' Event
Mendes P.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru Premier game between Caernarfon and Cambrian United finished 9-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caernarfon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Caernarfon
15%
Draws
26%
Cambrian United
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caernarfon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Caernarfon's 2.17 goals per match outpaces what Cambrian United have produced (2.07).
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Cymru Premier form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 11%
Cambrian United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caernarfon Cambrian United
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 16
Draws 2 6
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 2.17 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 3.00 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Cambrian United
9:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caernarfon Compare

Top Goalscorer Clarke Z.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mendes P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.31
Avg xA / game 1.5

Cambrian United Compare

Top Goalscorer Evans A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caernarfon 29 / 100
Cambrian United 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caernarfon Cambrian United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caernarfon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caernarfon found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 10.00 goals when they meet.

Cambrian United has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Caernarfon went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caernarfon VS Cambrian United
2.75 Goals Scored 2.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 3.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Caernarfon

(Home)
06 Nov
Penybont
2 : 0
Caernarfon
30 Oct
Airbus UK Broughton FC
3 : 2
Caernarfon
23 Oct
Caernarfon
3 : 1
Briton Ferry
17 Oct
Flint Town
1 : 3
Caernarfon
09 Oct
Haverfordwest
1 : 2
Caernarfon
Page 1 of 6

Cambrian United

(Away)
06 Nov
Cambrian United
3 : 3
Barry Town
30 Oct
Colwyn Bay
2 : 0
Cambrian United
23 Oct
Cambrian United
2 : 3
Airbus UK Broughton FC
16 Oct
Cambrian United
5 : 0
Trethomas Bluebirds
09 Oct
Cambrian United
0 : 1
Ammanford Town
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 TNS 16 14 2 0 54:6 44
2 Connahs Q. 16 12 2 2 34:9 38
3 Penybont 15 11 3 1 32:11 36
4 Colwyn Bay 16 10 2 4 28:18 32
5 Airbus UK Broughton FC 16 10 0 6 34:24 30
6 Caernarfon 16 9 2 5 42:21 29
7 Barry Town 16 9 2 5 35:29 29
8 Cardiff Metropolitan University 16 7 4 5 29:23 25
9 Cambrian United 16 5 4 7 26:41 19
10 Llandudno FC 16 5 1 10 22:29 16
11 Haverfordwest 16 5 1 10 12:23 16
12 Briton Ferry 16 4 3 9 17:28 15
13 Flint Town 16 4 2 10 19:27 14
14 Ammanford Town 16 3 3 10 13:43 12
15 Trefelin 16 1 3 12 9:38 6
16 Holywell Town FC 15 0 2 13 16:52 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)