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Caernarfon vs Cambrian United

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier The Oval, Caernarfon
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Evans A.
22' Event
Clarke Z.
27' Event
Mendes P.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru Premier game between Caernarfon and Cambrian United finished 9-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caernarfon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Caernarfon
30%
Draws
31%
Cambrian United
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Caernarfon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Cambrian United carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Caernarfon are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Cymru Premier form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 16%
Cambrian United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caernarfon Cambrian United
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 19
Draws 4 6
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 2.07 2
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Cambrian United
9:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caernarfon Compare

Top Goalscorer Clarke Z.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mendes P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Cambrian United Compare

Top Goalscorer Evans A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caernarfon 84 / 100
Cambrian United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caernarfon Cambrian United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caernarfon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caernarfon found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 10.00 goals when they meet.

Caernarfon has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Cambrian United let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Caernarfon VS Cambrian United
2.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Caernarfon

(Home)
18 Sept
Caernarfon
9 : 1
Cambrian United
15 Sept
Llandudno FC
1 : 1
Caernarfon
11 Sept
Ammanford Town
0 : 5
Caernarfon
04 Sept
Caernarfon
3 : 0
Flint Town
31 Aug
Caernarfon
2 : 3
TNS
Page 1 of 6

Cambrian United

(Away)
18 Sept
Caernarfon
9 : 1
Cambrian United
15 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 4
Cambrian United
11 Sept
Cambrian United
2 : 1
Holywell Town FC
04 Sept
Cardiff Metropolitan University
2 : 2
Cambrian United
31 Aug
Cambrian United
2 : 2
Penybont
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 TNS 10 9 1 0 26:4 28
2 Penybont 10 7 3 0 20:8 24
3 Caernarfon 10 7 1 2 33:11 22
4 Connahs Q. 10 7 1 2 23:7 22
5 Barry Town 10 7 1 2 25:16 22
6 Colwyn Bay 10 6 1 3 20:14 19
7 Llandudno FC 10 5 1 4 18:14 16
8 Airbus UK Broughton FC 10 5 0 5 17:15 15
9 Cambrian United 10 4 3 3 17:20 15
10 Cardiff Metropolitan University 9 4 2 3 19:11 14
11 Haverfordwest 9 3 1 5 7:14 10
12 Briton Ferry 10 2 2 6 9:19 8
13 Trefelin 10 0 3 7 4:24 3
14 Ammanford Town 10 0 3 7 7:28 3
15 Flint Town 10 0 2 8 8:24 2
16 Holywell Town FC 10 0 1 9 11:35 1
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)