Sport Picks
Match Events
27'
27'
Gosset D.
59'
59'
Gosset D.
65'
65'
Clarke Z.
AI Match Summary
Caernarfon in this Cymru Premier matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caernarfon.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
15%
46%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Colwyn Bay
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Colwyn Bay haven't matched Caernarfon's recent run of results.
- 39% — that's where the model lands on Caernarfon taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Caernarfon have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 17%
Colwyn Bay Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Caernarfon | Colwyn Bay |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 15 | 14 |
| Draws | 4 | 5 |
| Losses | 10 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 2.07 | 1.59 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.48 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.19 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 15, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Colwyn Bay
3:0
Apr 3, 2026 Cymru Premier
Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon
0:2
Feb 27, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Colwyn Bay
3:0
Jan 31, 2026 FAW Welsh Cup
Caernarfon vs Colwyn Bay
4:1
Dec 27, 2025 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Colwyn Bay
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Caernarfon Compare
Top Goalscorer Gosset D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Clarke Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09
Colwyn Bay Compare
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Caernarfon 66 / 100
Colwyn Bay 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Caernarfon Colwyn Bay
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Caernarfon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Caernarfon's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.
Colwyn Bay's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.
Caernarfon went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Caernarfon VS Colwyn Bay
2.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Caernarfon
(Home) 18 Sept
Caernarfon
9 : 1 Cambrian United
15 Sept
Llandudno FC
1 : 1 Caernarfon
11 Sept
Ammanford Town
0 : 5 Caernarfon
04 Sept
Caernarfon
3 : 0 Flint Town
31 Aug
Caernarfon
2 : 3 TNS
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Caernarfon
9 : 1 Cambrian United
04 Sept
Caernarfon
3 : 0 Flint Town
31 Aug
Caernarfon
2 : 3 TNS
15 Aug
Caernarfon
3 : 0 Colwyn Bay
07 Aug
Caernarfon
1 : 2 Penybont
Page 1 of 3
Colwyn Bay
(Away) 18 Sept
Colwyn Bay
5 : 2 Barry Town
15 Sept
Holywell Town FC
0 : 5 Colwyn Bay
12 Sept
Colwyn Bay
2 : 1 Connahs Q.
05 Sept
Penybont
1 : 0 Colwyn Bay
31 Aug
Colwyn Bay
2 : 0 Llandudno FC
Page 1 of 6
15 Sept
Holywell Town FC
0 : 5 Colwyn Bay
05 Sept
Penybont
1 : 0 Colwyn Bay
28 Aug
TNS
5 : 1 Colwyn Bay
15 Aug
Caernarfon
3 : 0 Colwyn Bay
07 Aug
Ammanford Town
2 : 2 Colwyn Bay
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TNS | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 26:4 | 28 |
| 2 | Penybont | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20:8 | 24 |
| 3 | Caernarfon | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 33:11 | 22 |
| 4 | Connahs Q. | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 23:7 | 22 |
| 5 | Barry Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 25:16 | 22 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20:14 | 19 |
| 7 | Llandudno FC | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18:14 | 16 |
| 8 | Airbus UK Broughton FC | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17:15 | 15 |
| 9 | Cambrian United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17:20 | 15 |
| 10 | Cardiff Metropolitan University | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19:11 | 14 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7:14 | 10 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9:19 | 8 |
| 13 | Trefelin | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4:24 | 3 |
| 14 | Ammanford Town | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7:28 | 3 |
| 15 | Flint Town | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8:24 | 2 |
| 16 | Holywell Town FC | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 11:35 | 1 |
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)
