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Caernarfon vs Colwyn Bay - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier The Oval, Caernarfon
Caernarfon Logo

Caernarfon

3 - 0
FT
Colwyn Bay Logo

Colwyn Bay

Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Gosset D.
59'
Gosset D.
65' Event
Clarke Z.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Caernarfon in this Cymru Premier matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caernarfon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Caernarfon
15%
Draws
50%
Colwyn Bay
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Colwyn Bay

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Caernarfon haven't matched Colwyn Bay's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Caernarfon have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 10%
Colwyn Bay Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caernarfon Colwyn Bay
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 16 18
Draws 2 5
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 2.17 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Colwyn Bay
3:0
Apr 3, 2026 Cymru Premier
Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon
0:2
Feb 27, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Colwyn Bay
3:0
Jan 31, 2026 FAW Welsh Cup
Caernarfon vs Colwyn Bay
4:1
Dec 27, 2025 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Colwyn Bay
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caernarfon Compare

Top Goalscorer Gosset D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Clarke Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Colwyn Bay Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caernarfon 34 / 100
Colwyn Bay 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caernarfon Colwyn Bay

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Colwyn Bay Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:6
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caernarfon's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Colwyn Bay's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 32 matches.

Caernarfon went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caernarfon VS Colwyn Bay
2.75 Goals Scored 2.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Caernarfon

(Home)
06 Nov
Penybont
2 : 0
Caernarfon
30 Oct
Airbus UK Broughton FC
3 : 2
Caernarfon
23 Oct
Caernarfon
3 : 1
Briton Ferry
17 Oct
Flint Town
1 : 3
Caernarfon
09 Oct
Haverfordwest
1 : 2
Caernarfon
Page 1 of 6

Colwyn Bay

(Away)
06 Nov
Trefelin
1 : 2
Colwyn Bay
30 Oct
Colwyn Bay
2 : 0
Cambrian United
23 Oct
Colwyn Bay
2 : 2
Cardiff Metropolitan University
17 Oct
Buckley
2 : 3
Colwyn Bay
10 Oct
Flint Town
0 : 1
Colwyn Bay
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 TNS 16 14 2 0 54:6 44
2 Connahs Q. 16 12 2 2 34:9 38
3 Penybont 15 11 3 1 32:11 36
4 Colwyn Bay 16 10 2 4 28:18 32
5 Airbus UK Broughton FC 16 10 0 6 34:24 30
6 Caernarfon 16 9 2 5 42:21 29
7 Barry Town 16 9 2 5 35:29 29
8 Cardiff Metropolitan University 16 7 4 5 29:23 25
9 Cambrian United 16 5 4 7 26:41 19
10 Llandudno FC 16 5 1 10 22:29 16
11 Haverfordwest 16 5 1 10 12:23 16
12 Briton Ferry 16 4 3 9 17:28 15
13 Flint Town 16 4 2 10 19:27 14
14 Ammanford Town 16 3 3 10 13:43 12
15 Trefelin 16 1 3 12 9:38 6
16 Holywell Town FC 15 0 2 13 16:52 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)