Sport Picks
Match Events
8'
8'
Bradley S.
13'
13'
Jones M.
20'
20'
Cieslewicz A.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-0. This leg finished 3-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caernarfon
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Caernarfon lately — more wins on the board than Flint Town.
- Model gives Caernarfon a 42% chance of winning this.
- Caernarfon have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Caernarfon, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Caernarfon here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 16%
Flint Town Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Caernarfon | Flint Town |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 12 | 9 |
| Draws | 6 | 9 |
| Losses | 10 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.61 | 1.46 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.54 | 1.54 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 12, 2026 FA Cup
Caernarfon vs Flint Town
3:0
Dec 5, 2025 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Flint Town
1:1
Aug 22, 2025 Cymru Premier
Flint Town vs Caernarfon
2:5
Jan 14, 2025 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Flint Town
3:0
Sep 25, 2024 Cymru Premier
Flint Town vs Caernarfon
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Caernarfon Compare
Top Goalscorer Bradley S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Jones M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91
Flint Town Compare
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Caernarfon 41 / 100
Flint Town 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Caernarfon Flint Town
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.
Attacking prowess: Caernarfon scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.
Defensive concern: Flint Town conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.
Flint Town's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
Caernarfon VS Flint Town
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Caernarfon
(Home) 15 Aug
Caernarfon
3 : 0 Colwyn Bay
07 Aug
Caernarfon
1 : 2 Penybont
02 Aug
Connahs Q.
1 : 2 Caernarfon
16 Jul
Levadia
5 : 0 Caernarfon
09 Jul
Caernarfon
0 : 5 Levadia
Page 1 of 6
15 Aug
Caernarfon
3 : 0 Colwyn Bay
07 Aug
Caernarfon
1 : 2 Penybont
09 Jul
Caernarfon
0 : 5 Levadia
18 Apr
Caernarfon
2 : 0 Penybont
12 Apr
Caernarfon
3 : 0 Flint Town
Page 1 of 3
Flint Town
(Away) 14 Aug
Cambrian United
1 : 0 Flint Town
07 Aug
Flint Town
2 : 3 Barry Town
31 Jul
Llandudno FC
3 : 2 Flint Town
27 Jun
Flint Town
3 : 2 Rhyl
18 Apr
Cardiff Metropolitan University
2 : 2 Flint Town
Page 1 of 6
14 Aug
Cambrian United
1 : 0 Flint Town
31 Jul
Llandudno FC
3 : 2 Flint Town
18 Apr
Cardiff Metropolitan University
2 : 2 Flint Town
12 Apr
Caernarfon
3 : 0 Flint Town
21 Mar
Briton Ferry
0 : 0 Flint Town
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Porthmadog 3
Denbigh 2
TBD -
Buckley -
Port Talbot 2
Seven Sisters 1
Afan Lido 3
Evans Williams 2
Pwllheli 1
Rhyl 3
Brickfield Rangers 3
NFA 1
Llantwit Major 2
Baglan Dragons 0
Cwmbran Town 5
Ynyshir Albions 4
Llanelli -
TBD -
TBD -
Haverfordwest -
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Barry Town -
Caerphilly 1
Caldicot 3
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 7
Pentwynmawr Ath 0
Saltney Town 3
Gresford 7
Llanrug 4
Ruthin Town 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
TBD -
Taffs Well 2
Abertillery Excelsiors 1
Mold Alexandra -
TBD -
TBD -
TNS -
Newtown -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Llannefydd 5
Llanberis FC 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Sychdyn Utd 0
Llwydcoed 3
Lliswerry 1
Pill -
Treowen -
Pontypridd United -
TBD -
Rhayader 1
Cefn Cribwr 4
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Trethomas Bluebirds -
Llanfair United 1
Kinmel Bay 2
TBD -
Colwyn Bay -
Goytre Utd 2
Ammanford Town 1
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Briton Ferry -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Bow Street 4
Cefn Albion 2
TBD -
Flint Town -
Holyhead 4
Forden Utd 0
TBD -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
Cwmbach Royal Stars 3
Garden Village 4
Tredegar Town 1
Glynneath Town 3
Broughton Utd 2
Welshpool 1
Berriew FC 0
Trearddur Bay 3
Newport City -
TBD -
Penygraig Utd 3
Cwm Welfare 2
Blaenavon Blues 4
Canton 1
Pontyclun FC 4
Tata Steel 1
St. Asaph 0
Bangor 1876 6
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Holywell Town FC -
TBD -
Rhostyllen 5
Nefyn United 2
Dinas Powys 3
Afan United 1
Cardiff Draconians 4
Cwmbran Celtic 2
Abercarn United 1
Pure Swansea 2
TBD -
Trefelin -
Caersws FC 6
Hawarden Rangers 1
Dolgellau Athletic 8
Queens Park 3
Penydarren 0
Caerau Ely 5
Morriston Town 1
Clydach 0
Llandudno FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Flint Mountain -
Bala -
TBD -
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
1/32-finals
Porthmadog 1
Buckley 0
Port Talbot 3
Afan Lido 1
Rhyl 1
Brickfield Rangers 0
Llantwit Major 1
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 3
Haverfordwest 0
Aberystwyth 0
Barry Town 5
Caldicot 0
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 2
Gresford 9
Llanrug 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 5
Taffs Well 1
Mold Alexandra 1
TNS 2
Newtown 0
Caernarfon 3
Llannefydd 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Llwydcoed 2
Treowen 5
Pontypridd United 3
Cefn Cribwr 1
Carmarthen Town 5
Trethomas Bluebirds 1
Kinmel Bay 0
Colwyn Bay 5
Goytre Utd 0
Cambrian United 6
Briton Ferry 0
Penybont 5
Bow Street 0
Flint Town 3
Holyhead 2
Airbus UK Broughton FC 5
Garden Village 2
Glynneath Town 4
Broughton Utd 0
Trearddur Bay 6
Newport City 3
Penygraig Utd 1
Blaenavon Blues 4
Pontyclun FC 2
Bangor 1876 2
Guilsfield 1
Holywell Town FC 3
Rhostyllen 2
Dinas Powys 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Pure Swansea 1
Trefelin 6
Caersws FC 0
Dolgellau Athletic 1
Caerau Ely 3
Morriston Town 0
Llandudno FC 3
Flint Mountain 0
Bala 0
Connahs Q. 3
1/16-finals
Porthmadog 3
Port Talbot 2
Rhyl 3
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 0
Barry Town 6
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 0
Gresford 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
TNS 1
Caernarfon 4
Penrhyncoch 0
Treowen 1
Pontypridd United 2
Carmarthen Town 1
Colwyn Bay 3
Cambrian United 1
Penybont 3
Flint Town 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 0
Glynneath Town 2
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Blaenavon Blues 2
Bangor 1876 2
Holywell Town FC 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Trefelin 4
Dolgellau Athletic 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 2
Connahs Q. 1
1/8-finals
Porthmadog 1
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 4
Gresford 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Caernarfon 4
Pontypridd United 0
Colwyn Bay 3
Penybont 0
Flint Town 1
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Bangor 1876 2
Trefelin 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 1
Quarter-finals
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 1
Caernarfon 4
Colwyn Bay 1
Flint Town 3
Trearddur Bay 0
Bangor 1876 3
Caerau Ely 1
Semi-finals
Rhyl 1
Caernarfon 2
Flint Town 5
Bangor 1876 1
Final
Caernarfon 3
Flint Town 0
