Sport Picks
Caernarfon vs TNS - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Wales
Cymru Premier The Oval, Caernarfon 
Match Events
15'
15'
Wilson B.
21'
21'
Hughes R.
23'
23'
Canavan J.
AI Match Summary
The Cymru Premier game between Caernarfon and TNS finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward TNS.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
15%
50%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: TNS
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
50%
/ Medium Confidence
- Caernarfon haven't matched TNS's recent run of results.
- 50% — that's where the model lands on TNS taking it.
- Regular Cymru Premier form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- TNS have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 10%
TNS Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Caernarfon | TNS |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 16 | 22 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 11 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 2.17 | 2.47 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.59 | 0.7 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 2.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 31, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs TNS
2:3
Mar 27, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs TNS
0:4
Feb 20, 2026 Cymru Premier
TNS vs Caernarfon
2:1
Nov 28, 2025 Cymru Premier
TNS vs Caernarfon
2:0
Nov 4, 2025 League Cup
TNS vs Caernarfon
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Caernarfon Compare
Top Goalscorer Evans O.
1 Goals Assists Leader Cieslewicz A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
TNS Compare
Top Goalscorer Wilson B.
1 Goals Assists Leader Hughes R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.67
Avg xA / game 1.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Caernarfon 10 / 100
TNS 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Caernarfon TNS
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick TNS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Caernarfon scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Caernarfon went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
TNS's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 30 matches.
Scoring Trends
Caernarfon VS TNS
2.75 Goals Scored 4.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Caernarfon
(Home) 06 Nov
Penybont
2 : 0 Caernarfon
30 Oct
Airbus UK Broughton FC
3 : 2 Caernarfon
23 Oct
Caernarfon
3 : 1 Briton Ferry
17 Oct
Flint Town
1 : 3 Caernarfon
09 Oct
Haverfordwest
1 : 2 Caernarfon
Page 1 of 6
23 Oct
Caernarfon
3 : 1 Briton Ferry
03 Oct
Caernarfon
0 : 1 Barry Town
18 Sept
Caernarfon
9 : 1 Cambrian United
04 Sept
Caernarfon
3 : 0 Flint Town
31 Aug
Caernarfon
2 : 3 TNS
Page 1 of 3
TNS
(Away) 06 Nov
Llandudno FC
0 : 1 TNS
31 Oct
TNS
0 : 0 Connahs Q.
23 Oct
TNS
9 : 0 Ammanford Town
16 Oct
Airbus UK Broughton FC
1 : 2 TNS
09 Oct
Holywell Town FC
1 : 6 TNS
Page 1 of 6
06 Nov
Llandudno FC
0 : 1 TNS
16 Oct
Airbus UK Broughton FC
1 : 2 TNS
09 Oct
Holywell Town FC
1 : 6 TNS
26 Sept
Trefelin
1 : 3 TNS
11 Sept
Airbus UK Broughton FC
0 : 2 TNS
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TNS | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 54:6 | 44 |
| 2 | Connahs Q. | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 34:9 | 38 |
| 3 | Penybont | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 32:11 | 36 |
| 4 | Colwyn Bay | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 28:18 | 32 |
| 5 | Airbus UK Broughton FC | 16 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 34:24 | 30 |
| 6 | Caernarfon | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 42:21 | 29 |
| 7 | Barry Town | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 35:29 | 29 |
| 8 | Cardiff Metropolitan University | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 29:23 | 25 |
| 9 | Cambrian United | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 26:41 | 19 |
| 10 | Llandudno FC | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 22:29 | 16 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 12:23 | 16 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 17:28 | 15 |
| 13 | Flint Town | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 19:27 | 14 |
| 14 | Ammanford Town | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13:43 | 12 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 9:38 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell Town FC | 15 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 16:52 | 2 |
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)
