Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Caerphilly vs Aberystwyth

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Williams A.
19' Event
Williams A.
49' Event
Skiverton F.

AI Match Summary

Aberystwyth in this Cymru South matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aberystwyth.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Caerphilly
15%
Draws
54%
Aberystwyth
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aberystwyth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Aberystwyth have won more games recently than Caerphilly.
  • Win probability leans Aberystwyth's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Caerphilly Clean Sheet 16%
Aberystwyth Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caerphilly Aberystwyth
Matches Played 12 29
Wins 3 14
Draws 2 3
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.25 1.59
Goals Conceded 2.17 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Cymru South
Caerphilly vs Aberystwyth
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caerphilly Compare

Top Goalscorer Skiverton F.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Aberystwyth Compare

Top Goalscorer Williams A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Hollinshead T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caerphilly 10 / 100
Aberystwyth 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caerphilly Aberystwyth

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aberystwyth Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Caerphilly scored in 67% of their last 12 games.

Aberystwyth's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Caerphilly stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caerphilly VS Aberystwyth
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Caerphilly

(Home)
12 Sept
Caerphilly
2 : 3
Aberystwyth
04 Sept
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 2
Caerphilly
31 Aug
Baglan Dragons
0 : 1
Caerphilly
22 Aug
Caerphilly
2 : 1
Ynyshir Albions
15 Aug
Treowen
3 : 0
Caerphilly
Page 1 of 3

Aberystwyth

(Away)
12 Sept
Caerphilly
2 : 3
Aberystwyth
31 Aug
Aberystwyth
4 : 0
Llanelli
28 Aug
Aberystwyth
1 : 0
Pontardawe
22 Aug
Aberystwyth
5 : 1
Llantwit Major
08 Aug
Aberystwyth
1 : 2
Treowen
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 6 5 1 0 22:5 16
2 Aberystwyth 6 5 0 1 19:7 15
3 Treowen 7 4 1 2 16:10 13
4 Pontypridd United 6 4 1 1 16:11 13
5 Baglan Dragons 8 4 1 3 8:8 13
6 Carmarthen Town 7 3 2 2 17:16 11
7 Caerau Ely 7 3 1 3 16:17 10
8 Afan Lido 8 3 1 4 13:15 10
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 7 2 3 2 14:13 9
10 Ynyshir Albions 6 2 3 1 6:5 9
11 Caerphilly 7 2 2 3 7:12 8
12 Cardiff Draconians 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
13 Newport City 5 2 0 3 9:5 6
14 Pontardawe 6 1 0 5 5:13 3
15 Llanelli 8 0 2 6 6:23 2
16 Llantwit Major 5 0 1 4 2:15 1
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)