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Cagliari vs Lecce - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie A Unipol Domus, Cagliari
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Maldini D.
Assist: Fazzini J.
37'
Gaspar K.
46'
Sub
Ngom O. In: Fatah A.
Out: Ngom O.

AI Match Summary

The Serie A game between Cagliari and Lecce finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cagliari.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Cagliari
15%
Draws
64%
Lecce
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lecce

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Cagliari come out ahead of Lecce on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Cagliari Clean Sheet 20%
Lecce Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cagliari Lecce
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 10
Draws 6 3
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 0.93 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 7, 2026 Serie A
Cagliari vs Lecce
1:0
Feb 16, 2026 Serie A
Cagliari vs Lecce
0:2
Sep 19, 2025 Serie A
Lecce vs Cagliari
1:2
Jan 19, 2025 Serie A
Cagliari vs Lecce
4:1
Aug 31, 2024 Serie A
Lecce vs Cagliari
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cagliari Compare

Top Goalscorer Maldini D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Lecce Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cagliari 32 / 100
Lecce 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cagliari Lecce

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lecce Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Cagliari scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Lecce has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Lecce lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cagliari VS Lecce
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Cagliari

(Home)
01 Nov
Lazio
2 : 1
Cagliari
27 Oct
AS Roma
4 : 2
Cagliari
24 Oct
Cagliari
0 : 2
Bologna
19 Oct
Monza
4 : 0
Cagliari
11 Oct
Cagliari
1 : 1
Juventus
Page 1 of 6

Lecce

(Away)
01 Nov
Lecce
1 : 2
Genoa
29 Oct
Frosinone
5 : 1
Lecce
25 Oct
Lecce
0 : 2
Juventus
18 Oct
Udinese
0 : 3
Lecce
11 Oct
Lecce
1 : 2
Bologna
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lazio 10 9 1 0 24:8 28
2 Inter 10 8 1 1 26:13 25
3 AS Roma 10 7 3 0 28:10 24
4 Como 10 7 2 1 18:8 23
5 AC Milan 10 6 3 1 21:12 21
6 Frosinone 10 6 2 2 24:14 20
7 Juventus 10 5 2 3 13:10 17
8 Napoli 10 4 2 4 17:13 14
9 Bologna 10 4 2 4 14:13 14
10 Torino 10 4 1 5 14:16 13
11 Genoa 10 4 1 5 10:14 13
12 Cagliari 10 4 1 5 9:15 13
13 Atalanta 10 3 2 5 16:20 11
14 Lecce 10 3 0 7 11:21 9
15 Parma 10 2 2 6 8:15 8
16 Fiorentina 10 2 2 6 15:23 8
17 Sassuolo 10 2 2 6 16:26 8
18 Monza 10 2 1 7 17:24 7
19 Udinese 10 1 2 7 11:23 5
20 Venezia 10 1 0 9 6:20 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)