Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cagliari vs Lecce

Italy Italy

Serie A Unipol Domus, Cagliari
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Maldini D.
Assist: Fazzini J.
37'
Gaspar K.
46'
Sub
Ngom O. In: Fatah A.
Out: Ngom O.

AI Match Summary

The Serie A game between Cagliari and Lecce finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cagliari.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Cagliari
15%
Draws
34%
Lecce
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cagliari

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Cagliari come out ahead of Lecce on wins alone.
  • Model gives Cagliari a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Cagliari Clean Sheet 68%
Lecce Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cagliari Lecce
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 11
Draws 5 4
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1 1
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 7, 2026 Serie A
Cagliari vs Lecce
1:0
Feb 16, 2026 Serie A
Cagliari vs Lecce
0:2
Sep 19, 2025 Serie A
Lecce vs Cagliari
1:2
Jan 19, 2025 Serie A
Cagliari vs Lecce
4:1
Aug 31, 2024 Serie A
Lecce vs Cagliari
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cagliari Compare

Top Goalscorer Maldini D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Lecce Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cagliari 77 / 100
Lecce 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cagliari Lecce

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cagliari Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Cagliari scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Lecce has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Cagliari went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cagliari VS Lecce
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
25% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Cagliari

(Home)
12 Sept
Atalanta
1 : 2
Cagliari
07 Sept
Cagliari
1 : 0
Lecce
03 Sept
Cagliari
1 : 2
Verona
30 Aug
Cagliari
0 : 1
Inter
22 Aug
Parma
0 : 1
Cagliari
Page 1 of 6

Lecce

(Away)
13 Sept
Lecce
3 : 2
Monza
07 Sept
Cagliari
1 : 0
Lecce
31 Aug
Lecce
0 : 4
AS Roma
23 Aug
Venezia
0 : 2
Lecce
17 Aug
Palermo
2 : 0
Lecce
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AS Roma 4 4 0 0 12:1 12
2 Inter 4 4 0 0 13:6 12
3 Como 4 3 1 0 9:4 10
4 Lazio 4 3 1 0 6:3 10
5 Cagliari 4 3 0 1 4:2 9
6 AC Milan 4 2 2 0 7:4 8
7 Frosinone 4 2 1 1 7:4 7
8 Juventus 4 2 1 1 6:4 7
9 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 9:9 7
10 Napoli 4 2 0 2 6:5 6
11 Atalanta 4 2 0 2 5:5 6
12 Lecce 4 2 0 2 5:7 6
13 Udinese 4 1 1 2 8:10 4
14 Monza 5 1 1 3 8:12 4
15 Torino 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
16 Fiorentina 4 1 0 3 5:11 3
17 Bologna 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
18 Parma 4 0 1 3 2:6 1
19 Genoa 4 0 1 3 2:8 1
20 Venezia 4 0 0 4 4:11 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)