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Caldas SC vs Covilha Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Campo da Mata, Caldas da Rainha
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Monteiro E.
24'
Balsa C.
39' Event
Farinha L.
Assist: Chaves G.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Caldas SC and Covilha finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Caldas SC
30%
Draws
16%
Covilha
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Caldas SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Caldas SC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Caldas SC are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Caldas SC Clean Sheet 68%
Covilha Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caldas SC Covilha
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 7
Draws 4 9
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 0.9 0.82
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Liga 3
Caldas SC vs Covilha
1:1
Feb 22, 2026 Liga 3
Covilha vs Caldas SC
1:0
Nov 9, 2025 Liga 3
Covilha vs Caldas SC
2:1
Aug 9, 2025 Liga 3
Caldas SC vs Covilha
2:1
Jul 25, 2025 Club Friendly
Caldas SC vs Covilha
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caldas SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Farinha L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Covilha Compare

Top Goalscorer Cruz F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caldas SC 68 / 100
Covilha 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caldas SC Covilha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caldas SC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caldas SC found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Covilha's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Caldas SC stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caldas SC VS Covilha
1.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Caldas SC

(Home)
13 Sept
Caldas SC
2 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
04 Sept
Santarem
0 : 1
Caldas SC
30 Aug
Caldas SC
1 : 3
Sintrense
23 Aug
Caldas SC
2 : 4
Louletano
16 Aug
Caldas SC
0 : 0
Lusitano GC
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Covilha

(Away)
12 Sept
Lusitano GC
2 : 2
Covilha
05 Sept
Mafra
1 : 0
Covilha
30 Aug
Covilha
0 : 1
Mortagua FC
22 Aug
Covilha
0 : 3
Atletico CP
16 Aug
Vitoria Sernache
0 : 0
Covilha
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