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Cambrian United vs Trethomas Bluebirds - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

FAW Welsh Cup
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the FAW Welsh Cup. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Trethomas Bluebirds have shipped 2.16 goals a game lately, while Cambrian United have conceded 1.29 and scored 2.24. Head-to-head, Cambrian United have won 2 to Trethomas Bluebirds's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Mar 1, 2026, ending 4:2. xG projections (2.13 - 2.25) back Cambrian United to edge this. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Cambrian United
20%
Draws
46%
Trethomas Bluebirds
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Trethomas Bluebirds

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Cambrian United have won more games recently than Trethomas Bluebirds.
  • Trethomas Bluebirds are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Cambrian United have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Trethomas Bluebirds, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Cambrian United Clean Sheet 10%
Trethomas Bluebirds Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cambrian United Trethomas Bluebirds
Matches Played 41 32
Wins 28 9
Draws 7 9
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 2.24 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.29 2.16
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Cymru South
Cambrian United vs Trethomas Bluebirds
4:2
Aug 15, 2025 Cymru South
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Cambrian United
0:5
Mar 28, 2025 Cymru South
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Cambrian United
0:0
Nov 9, 2024 Cymru South
Cambrian United vs Trethomas Bluebirds
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cambrian United 10 / 100
Trethomas Bluebirds 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cambrian United Trethomas Bluebirds

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Trethomas Bluebirds Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cambrian United scored in 90% of their last 41 games.

Trethomas Bluebirds has conceded goals in 88% of their last 32 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Cambrian United went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cambrian United VS Trethomas Bluebirds
2.25 Goals Scored 2
2.5 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Cambrian United

(Home)
09 Oct
Cambrian United
0 : 1
Ammanford Town
03 Oct
TNS
9 : 0
Cambrian United
26 Sept
Cambrian United
4 : 3
Llandudno FC
18 Sept
Caernarfon
9 : 1
Cambrian United
15 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 4
Cambrian United
Page 1 of 9

Trethomas Bluebirds

(Away)
03 Oct
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 3
Pontardawe
26 Sept
Ynyshir Albions
1 : 1
Trethomas Bluebirds
04 Sept
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 2
Caerphilly
31 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 3
Trethomas Bluebirds
28 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
5 : 2
Afan Lido
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
TNS -
Coedpoeth -
Guilsfield -
Llannefydd -
Llandudno FC -
Newtown -
Llanuwchllyn -
Bala -
Holyhead -
Connahs Q. -
Porthmadog -
Penycae FC -
Dolgellau Athletic -
Aberystwyth -
Prestatyn -
Flint Town -
Caernarfon -
Llay Welfare -
Holywell Town FC -
Buckley -
Colwyn Bay -
Brickfield Rangers -
Llangefni -
Denbigh -
Bangor 1876 -
Cefn Albion -
Felinheli -
Llysfaen -
Mochdre Sports -
Pontarddulais -
Goytre Utd -
Trefelin -
Llantwit Major -
Afan Lido -
Penybont -
Caerau Ely -
Llanelli -
Blaen-y-Maes -
Ely Rangers -
Radnor Valley -
Cardiff Draconians -
Barry Town -
Tredegar Town -
Cwmaman Institute -
Ammanford Town -
Llangennech -
Pontardawe -
Caerphilly -
Chepstow Town -
Evans Williams -
Rockspur -
Briton Ferry -
Afan United -
Llantwit Fardre -
Baglan Dragons -
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
Ynyshir Albions -
Cambrian United -
Trethomas Bluebirds -
Carmarthen Town -
Newport City -
Haverfordwest -
Cardiff Corries -
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Quarter-finals
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Semi-finals
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Final
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