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Stadium Background

Canada vs Australia Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Friendly International 2025 Saputo Stadium, Montreal, QC
Our Tip

Match Events

41'
Cornelius D.
41'
Toure M.
57'
Sub
Italiano J. In: Miller L.
Out: Italiano J.

AI Match Summary

Australia in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Australia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Canada
20%
Draws
15%
Australia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Canada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Canada lately — more wins on the board than Australia.
  • Canada are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Australia here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Canada Clean Sheet 68%
Australia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Canada Australia
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 15
Draws 9 7
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.48 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.68 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 10, 2025 Friendly International
Canada vs Australia
0:1
Oct 15, 2013 Friendly International
Canada vs Australia
0:3
Aug 14, 1993 World Championship
Australia vs Canada
3:1
Jul 30, 1993 World Championship
Canada vs Australia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Canada Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Australia Compare

Top Goalscorer Irankunda N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Canada 95 / 100
Australia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Canada Australia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Canada Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Canada's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.75 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Canada stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Difficult form: Australia registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Canada VS Australia
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Canada

(Home)
26 Sept
Canada
1 : 0
Chile
04 Jul
Canada
0 : 3
Morocco
28 Jun
South Africa
0 : 1
Canada
24 Jun
Switzerland
2 : 1
Canada
18 Jun
Canada
6 : 0
Qatar
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Australia

(Away)
29 Sept
Australia
2 : 4
Brazil
25 Sept
Australia
1 : 1
Brazil
03 Jul
Australia
1 : 2
Egypt
26 Jun
Paraguay
0 : 0
Australia
19 Jun
USA
2 : 0
Australia
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