Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Canada vs Guatemala

North & Central America North & Central America

Gold Cup U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Sun, Jun 29, 2025
1 - 2
08:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
David J.
(Penalty)
40'
Shaffelburg J.
45'
Shaffelburg J.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. This leg finished 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Canada
15%
Draws
26%
Guatemala
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Canada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Canada have won more games recently than Guatemala.
  • Canada are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Canada have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Canada, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Canada Clean Sheet 68%
Guatemala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Canada Guatemala
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 15 11
Draws 9 5
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.58 1.31
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Friendly International
Canada vs Guatemala
1:0
Jun 29, 2025 Gold Cup
Canada vs Guatemala
1:2
Jul 2, 2023 Gold Cup
Guatemala vs Canada
0:0
Jan 23, 2022 Friendly International
Guatemala vs Canada
0:0
Mar 27, 2015 Friendly International
Canada vs Guatemala
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Canada Compare

Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Guatemala Compare

Top Goalscorer Rubin R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Canada 95 / 100
Guatemala 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Canada Guatemala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Canada Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guatemala's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.

Canada scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Canada has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Away concern: Guatemala has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Canada VS Guatemala
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
0.5 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Canada

(Home)
04 Jul
Canada
0 : 3
Morocco
28 Jun
South Africa
0 : 1
Canada
24 Jun
Switzerland
2 : 1
Canada
18 Jun
Canada
6 : 0
Qatar
12 Jun
Canada
1 : 1
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Page 1 of 7

Guatemala

(Away)
07 Jun
Ecuador
3 : 0
Guatemala
05 Jun
Czech Republic
3 : 1
Guatemala
27 Mar
Algeria
7 : 0
Guatemala
18 Jan
Canada
1 : 0
Guatemala
19 Nov
Guatemala
3 : 1
Suriname
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
USA 3
Costa Rica 2
Canada 1
Guatemala 2
Mexico 2
Saudi Arabia 0
Panama 1
Honduras 2
Semi-finals
USA 2
Guatemala 1
Mexico 1
Honduras 0
Final
USA 1
Mexico 2