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Canada vs Morocco

World World

World Championship 2026 NRG Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Canada play Morocco in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Canada averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Morocco averaged 2.04 goals scored and 0.39 conceded. In past meetings, Canada won 0, Morocco won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 4, 2026 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Canada and 1.50 for Morocco. This points to a Morocco double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Canada
16%
Draws
51%
Morocco
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Morocco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Canada picked up more points recently compared to Morocco.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Canada Clean Sheet 16%
Morocco Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Canada Morocco
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 15 23
Draws 8 5
Losses 7 0
Goals Scored 1.57 2.04
Goals Conceded 0.8 0.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 World Championship
Canada vs Morocco
0:3
Dec 1, 2022 World Championship
Canada vs Morocco
1:2
Oct 11, 2016 Friendly International
Morocco vs Canada
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Canada Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Morocco Compare

Top Goalscorer Ounahi A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Rahimi S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Canada 33 / 100
Morocco 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Canada Morocco

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Morocco or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +32%
4.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15%
2.50
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Canada attacking → ← attacking Morocco

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Canada scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Morocco let in goals in 32% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.33 goals.

Canada went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Morocco lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 74
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 2.25
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50