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Canada vs Ukraine

World World

Friendly International 2025 BMO Field
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Canada play Ukraine in the Friendly International 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Canada averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Ukraine averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. In past meetings, Canada won 1, Ukraine won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 7, 2025 ended 4:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.21 for Canada and 0.83 for Ukraine. This points to a Canada double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Canada
23%
Draws
34%
Ukraine
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Canada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Canada picked up more points recently compared to Ukraine.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.21 vs 0.83 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Canada Clean Sheet 26%
Ukraine Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Canada Ukraine
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 14
Draws 8 6
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.57 1.43
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 1.43

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2025 Friendly International
Canada vs Ukraine
4:2
Oct 8, 2010 Friendly International
Ukraine vs Canada
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Canada Compare

Top Goalscorer David J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader David P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Ukraine Compare

Top Goalscorer Zabarnyi I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.72

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Canada 44 / 100
Ukraine 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Canada Ukraine

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Canada or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Canada attacking → ← attacking Ukraine

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Canada scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Ukraine let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Canada went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Ukraine lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 48
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.29
0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.43