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Candango vs Gremio Valparaiso

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2 2025
Candango Logo

Candango

3 - 4
FT
Gremio Valparaiso Logo

Gremio Valparaiso

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Gremio Valparaiso in this Brasiliense 2 2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gremio Valparaiso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Candango
30%
Draws
58%
Gremio Valparaiso
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gremio Valparaiso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Gremio Valparaiso have won more games recently than Candango.
  • Win probability leans Gremio Valparaiso's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Candango Clean Sheet 10%
Gremio Valparaiso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Candango Gremio Valparaiso
Matches Played 29 18
Wins 2 6
Draws 4 2
Losses 23 10
Goals Scored 0.97 1.33
Goals Conceded 3.28 2.44
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Brasiliense 2
Gremio Valparaiso vs Candango
1:1
Sep 14, 2025 Brasiliense 2
Candango vs Gremio Valparaiso
3:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Candango 10 / 100
Gremio Valparaiso 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Candango Gremio Valparaiso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gremio Valparaiso Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gremio Valparaiso has conceded goals in 83% of their last 18 outings.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Candango found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (29 games).

Candango has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Candango VS Gremio Valparaiso
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
3.63 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Candango

(Home)
19 Sept
Candango
0 : 2
Legiao
13 Sept
Planaltina
2 : 0
Candango
06 Sept
Gremio Valparaiso
1 : 1
Candango
29 Aug
Candango
0 : 4
Taguatinga
11 Oct
Brasilia FC (DF)
6 : 0
Candango
Page 1 of 6

Gremio Valparaiso

(Away)
20 Sept
Luziania
0 : 6
Gremio Valparaiso
12 Sept
Gremio Valparaiso
0 : 2
Taguatinga
06 Sept
Gremio Valparaiso
1 : 1
Candango
30 Aug
Planaltina
1 : 1
Gremio Valparaiso
11 Oct
Gremio Valparaiso
0 : 5
ARUC
Page 1 of 4

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ARUC 7 5 2 0 28:4 17
2 Brasilia FC (DF) 7 5 1 1 20:4 16
3 Planaltina 7 4 1 2 16:4 13
4 Cruzeiro FC 7 3 2 2 11:7 11
5 Luziania 7 2 3 2 8:4 9
6 Gremio Valparaiso 7 2 0 5 8:19 6
7 Riacho City 7 1 1 5 8:26 4
8 Candango 7 1 0 6 4:35 3
Promotion - Brasiliense (Main)